Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022

Highlights

• PredictIt nears its probable demise
• American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
• Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft (a).
• Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
• Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
• Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
• Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
• Yearly feedback form

Why this might be of interest to EAs: Forecasting is a tool to better understand the world. EAs are generally interested in that tool, particularly as it related to using it to improve the world. As such, developments in forecasting as a field might also be of interest. For example, in this edition I briefly review Open Philanthropy's grant of $8M given to INFER.

Link to the post: <https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-for-november>.