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Everything might change forever this century (or we’ll go extinct)

Rational Animations
347K subscribers
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1.9M views 2 years ago
We could be living in the most important century in history. Here's how Artificial Intelligence might uphold a historical trend of super-exponential economic growth, ushering us into a period of sudden transformation, ending in a stable galaxy-scale civilization or doom. All within the next few decades. This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-impor... Below, you can find additional sources and further readings. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon:   / rationalanimations   🟢Merch: https://rational-animations-shop.four... 🔵 Channel membership:    / @rationalanimations   🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter:   / rationalanimat1   Discord:   / discord   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀: Most important: Holden Karnofsky’s  …...more
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Everything might change forever this century (or we’ll go extinct)
65KLikes
1,922,128Views
2022Jul 24
We could be living in the most important century in history. Here's how Artificial Intelligence might uphold a historical trend of super-exponential economic growth, ushering us into a period of sudden transformation, ending in a stable galaxy-scale civilization or doom. All within the next few decades. This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-impor... Below, you can find additional sources and further readings. ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ 🟠 Patreon:   / rationalanimations   🟢Merch: https://rational-animations-shop.four... 🔵 Channel membership:    / @rationalanimations   🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Twitter:   / rationalanimat1   Discord:   / discord   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀: Most important: Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: https://www.cold-takes.com/most-impor... Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/fo... More sources: Our World in Data, page on population growth: https://ourworldindata.org/world-popu... Our World in Data, page on democracy: https://ourworldindata.org/democracy Our World in Data, population of England: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/po... Our World in Data, World GDP over the last two millennia: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wo... Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C – Present, by J. Bradford De Long: https://delong.typepad.com/print/2006... An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus: https://www.medicina.univr.it/documen... Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* Michael Kremer: https://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/fil... Modeling the Human Trajectory, by David Roodman: https://www.openphilanthropy.org/rese... GDP Growth (annual %), from The World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/... 2016 Expert survey on progress in AI: https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-sur... Robert Miles’ (our narrator) YouTube channel on AGI alignment:    / robertmilesai   Trends in the cost of computing, by AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-c... Animation at minute 31:50 inspired by the cover of the book "Facing the Intelligence Explosion", by Luke Muehlhasuer: https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Intelli... ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Share this video with a friend or on Social Media:    • Video   Playlist with all the animated videos:    • The Planning Fallacy: Why You Struggl...   Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3 ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Thanks to our patrons and channel members from the Simple Adder tier and above: Bleys Goodson Dawson marverati Matt Parlmer Michael Zimmermann no special person Vincent Söderberg Filip Passeri Scott Alexander Connor Dang Griffith Mark Gongloff Neel Nanda rictic Robin Hanson Ryouta Takehiko Ana Tomasovic Bryan Egan Calvin McCarter Craig Ludington Craig Talbert Dan Wahl Ducky Florian Gabriel Ledung Grisha Levit Jacob Van Buren Jeroen De Dauw joe39504589 John S Klemen Slavic Lars Osborne Logic Luke Freeman Nathan Nathan Fish Nicholas Kees Dupuis Nick Sharp noggieB Oisin Hendrix Raphaël Lévy Roborodger Sephiths Superslowmojoe Tim Duffy Trevyn Case Udo The CEO Lexi X רם רינגל ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Writer: Matthew Barnett Producer: :3 Animator: :3 Narrator: Robert Miles Sound design: Tony Dipiazza ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ Chapters: 0:00 - A Very Unusual Time Period 4:29 - The 21st Century Could Be Much Weirder Than We Imagine 10:08 - The Duplicator 14:55 - The Most Important Invention Ever? 15:53 - When Will Advanced AI Arrive? 20:29 - Ajeya Cotra's Report on AI Timelines 27:54 - What Does This All Ultimately Mean?

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Rational Animations

347K subscribers