Thank you all for joining, I hope you enjoyed it as well! My delay getting home was less severe than on the way to Atopia but still a lot more than 1 minute and today there were white patches on the grass close to the S-Bahn ^^

A couple of random points connected to yesterday's discussion. I would be glad to hear your thoughts:

• For me the best thing I learned yesterday was how beneficial it can actually be to discuss a question, based on the probability different people assign to a certain outcome. I hadn't realised this before.

• Here is an article about probabilistic reasoning that Isa and I discussed during preparation as well, maybe you'll find it as interesting as we did: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BWLAzZEA5K7HPr2CL/probabilities-prioritization-and-bayesian-mindset

• And, last point: I have a question. Is anyone aware of any good research on the topic of how well humans perform when making decisions on guessed probabilities in complex cenarios where the whole state space is (other than in a game scenario) not known to anyone.

Hi, I thoroughly enjoyed the evening and was struck by the diversity of perspectives shared. It was fascinating how seemingly unrelated questions—such as the probability of humanity’s survival until the end of the century and the likelihood of someone born after 2001 living to 150—intertwined in surprising ways ;) For further exploration of such complex scenarios, my favorites are “Noise” by Daniel Kahneman and “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, as they offer profound insights into judgment, probability, and uncertainty. 🖖 Olli