Scientific and technological progress might change people’s capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civilization. This paper introduces the concept of a vulnerable world: roughly, one in which there is some level of technological development at which civilization almost certainly experiences catastrophe by default. (45 mins.)
An interview with Bonnie Jenkins, an ambassador at the U.S. Department of State under the Obama administration, where she worked for eight years as Coordinator for Threat Reduction Programs in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation. (Podcast - 1 hour 40 mins.)
Because global catastrophic risks transcend national borders, we need new global solutions that our current systems of global governance struggle to deliver. (Video - 20 mins.)
Daniel Ellsberg on the institutional insanity that maintains large nuclear arsenals, and a practical plan for dismantling them. (Podcast - 2 hours 45 mins.)
Cross-posted from my Substack.
Epistemic status: I’ve puzzled over this for a long time but I’m not sure I came to the right answers. I'm sharing this partly because it might help others work on resource allocation, but mostly because some smarter reader might tell me how to do it better.
TL;DR:
* I he...
With the AI windfall, mental health may be taken increasingly seriously by mainstream EA. There’s increasingly room to explore the cause area and answer some of the biggest uncertainties; at the same time, costs of the most effective interventions are continuing to fall. StrongMinds is now treating for ~$35, about a third of GiveWell’s best guess from a few years ago, and is expected to...