Long-range forecasting

Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,^[1] although there is no generally agreed-upon definition.

Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,^[1] although there is no agreed-upon definition.

Karnofsky, Holden (2022) The track record of futurists seems … fine, Cold Takes, June 30.

AI forecasting | cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-term future | longtermism

1. ^{^}

   Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.