Manifold Markets is a play money prediction market with user-created questions. The play money can be redeemed as a charitable donation.

Tutorial

A video tutorial is also available^[1].

Mana (M$) is the currency of Manifold. Users start with M$500 for free. M$ can be redeemed as a charitable donation at M$100:$1 or purchased at the same exchange rate

Markets are the unit of prediction on Manifold. Creating a market costs M$50, which is then used as a liquidity pool to allow users to trade on the market.

Most markets are yes/no (e.g. 'Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022?'^[2]). Users buy 'shares' at a price determined by the current bet (the lower the probability assigned to your outcome when you bet, the cheaper the shares), which each resolve to M$1 if you're correct, or M$0 if you're wrong.

Note that you can embed Manifold Markets in foum posts and wiki entries!

Example:

Here's an example market^[2]; we can buy shares for yes or no with the purple arrows:

Below, we've spent M$10 in favour. Because the market is at 20%, this buys us 53 YES shares. If the market resolves yes, we'll net back M$53 for our M$10 investment:

We can also click on the title to see more information, make larger bets, and sell our shares (at their current price as determined by the market's aggregate bet):

Funding

As of July 2022, Manifold Markets has received $1.5 million in funding from the Future Fund,^[3] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.^[4]

Further reading

Patel, Dwarkesh (2022) 27: Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions markets & better governance, Lunar Society, May 5.

External links

Manifold Markets. Official website.

Manifold FAQ. Official tutorial

Above the Fold. Blog.

Related entries

forecasting | prediction markets | list of tools for collaborative truth seeking

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Manifold Markets Tutorial, Victoria Brook (2022)
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Manifold Markets, Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2022? (tests included)
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Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: Manifold Markets, Future Fund.
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Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.