Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data scientist Max Wainwright.^[1]^[2]

Tutorials

The official Metaculus tutorials^[3] are suitable for beginners as a way to introduce forecasting, probability distributions, and a basic understanding of how to behave under uncertainty.

Tutorial #1 is over-explaining for those with a basic understanding of the forecasting, but still a good introduction to using Metaculus specifically.

For those familiar with forecasting, tutorials #2 and #3 are more useful as a (small) amount of calibration practice and building familiarity with the Metaculus interface.

A video introduction to Metaculus is also available^[4].

Funding

As of August 2022, Metaculus has received $5.6 million in grants from Open Philanthropy,^[5] and over $300,000 from Effective Altruism Funds.^[6]

Further reading

Aguirre, Anthony (2021) A primer on the Metaculus scoring rule, Medium, February 27.

dan (2020) A preliminary look at Metaculus and expert forecasts, Metaculus, June 2.

Hobbhahn, Marius (2022) How good were our AI timeline predictions so far?, Metaculus, April 10.

External links

Metaculus. Official website

FAQs.

Apply for a job

Related entries

AI forecasting | Forecasting | Prediction markets | Manifold markets

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Mann, Adam (2016) The power of prediction markets, Nature, October 18.
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Shelton, Jim (2016) Metaculus: A prediction website with an eye on science and technology, YaleNews, November 2.
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Metaculus, Tutorials
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Brook, Victoria (2022), Metaculus Tutorial, Loom
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Open Philanthropy (2022) Grants database: Metaculus, Open Philanthropy.
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Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund (2021) May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund grants, Effective Altruism Funds, August.