Theory of change

A theory of change is a set of hypotheses about explicitly articulates the cause-and-effect steps for how a project—suchproject or organization can turn inputs into a desired impact on the world (i.e. it’s their theory of how they’ll make a change). They generally include the following sections:

• Inputs / activities: What the project or organization does to create change (e.g. “distribute bednets”)
• Outputs: The tangible effects generated by the inputs (e.g. “beneficiaries have access to malaria nets”)
• Intermediate outcomes: The outputs’ effects, including benefits for the beneficiary, (e.g. “malaria nets are used” and "reduced incidence of malaria")
• Impact: What we’re ultimately solving, and why the intermediate outcomes matter (e.g. “lives saved”)

Best practices when crafting a theory of change (i.e. for creators):

• Invest sufficiently in understanding the problem context (i.e. understanding the needs and incentives of the beneficiaries and other stakeholders, as well as barriers to change and the economic & political context)
• Map the causal pathway backwards from impact to activities
• Question every causal step (is it clear why A should cause B? how might it fail?)

Hallmarks of an intervention, an organization,  or a movement—will accomplish its goals.excellent theory of change (i.e. for reviewers):

• A focused suite of activities
• The evidence and assumptions behind each step are explicitly named
• The relative confidence of each step is clear
• It is often created by starting withclear who the goals, and then identifying the penultimateactor is in each step that leads

Common mistakes to the goals. The step that leads to the penultimate step is then identified, and so on, until the first steps are known. This method is called backward induction, backwards mapping or backchaining.

Further reading

Siegmann, Charlotte (2022) Collection of resources aboutavoid in theories of change are:

• Not making fundamental impact the goal (e.g., Effective Altruismstopping at ‘increased immunizations’ instead of ‘improved health’)
• Being insufficiently detailed: (a) making large leaps between each step, (b) combining multiple major outcomes into one step (e.g. ‘government introduces and enforces regulation’).
• Setting and forgetting (instead of regularly iterating on it)
• Not building your theory of change into a measurement plan

From: Nailing the basics – Theories of change — EA Forum, May 15. (effectivealtruism.org)

It is often created by starting with the goals, and then identifying the penultimate step that leads to the goals. The step that leads to the penultimate step is then identified, and so on, until the first steps are known. This processmethod is called backward induction, backwards mapping or backchaining.

It is often created by starting with the goals, and then identifying the penultimate step that leads to the goals. The step that leads to the penultimate step is then identified, and so on, until the first steps are known. This process is called backward induction, backwards mapping or backchaining.