“Any costing of a 25-year eradication effort is speculative and involves uncertainties that increase over time. Nonetheless, initial modeling suggests that the costs of eradicating malaria could be $90–$120 billion between 2015 and 2040.”
Is funding the main bottleneck for eradicating Malaria using the current most cost-effective interventions? If so, I'm curious about how much additional funding is needed for this goal. Thanks!
Just how powerful are large swarms of AI agents? And how do their powers scale as more and more agents are added to the swarm?
We’ve seen two large and extremely capable swarms from OpenAI in the last few months:
* 1,200 agents were being evaluated separately, but found a way to illicitly set up a message board and coordinate as a swarm. In order to cheat on their tests, they developed advanced techniques to prevent their actions being logged by OpenAI and 700 of them launched...
TLDR: Everyone’s talking about what the money could do, but few about how to decide where it goes.
This post is part of the new series of articles on cross-cause giving and the new wave of philanthropy. Stay tuned to the EA Forum and our Substack for the latest takes on topics such as giving now vs. later, common pitfalls in cause prioritization, and other crucial considerations from the Cross-Cause Fund (CCF) team...
note: crosspost from my substack
As a vegan for almost thirty years, I’ve long had second thoughts about how effective veganism is for helping animals. I am not alone in this. Recently others have expressed doubts about veganism (see for instance here,...
$90 to $120 billion:
“Any costing of a 25-year eradication effort is speculative and involves uncertainties that increase over time. Nonetheless, initial modeling suggests that the costs of eradicating malaria could be $90–$120 billion between 2015 and 2040.”
From Aspiration to Action (2015)
Is that any particular confidence interval? It seems implausible that it would be so tight.
None mentioned in the report. It refers to the Methods section of an online appendix but the appendix doesn't appear to be on the website.
From a quick skim, this doesn't seem to account for the poleward movement of malaria vectors that is likely to occur under climate change (https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/climate-change-and-malaria-complex-relationship), which seems like it would increase eradication costs substantially.
WHO published a report on malaria eradication (2020) that covers megatrends like climate change.
It is similar to other reports in recommending over $6 billion per year to meet targets.
The Lancet Commission on Malaria Eradication (2019) : "Malaria eradication is likely to cost over $6 billion per year. The world is already spending around $4.3 billion."
If eradication is achieved by 2040, that would be about $120 billion in total.