EA Münster Predictions 2021

florian-az

These are our internal local group predictions, we just used a post to get quick elicit.com embeds. Please do not upvote.

COVID19

Immune Escape Variant of COVID19 discovered against which the current BioNTech vaccine is only <50% effective before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/5wKEHg2SJ)

Germany

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Silvester 2021: Feiern mit bis zu 10 Leuten in einem geschlossenen Raum ohne Maske erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/Y7kf5Xm_C)

Silvester 2021: Feuerwerk erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/aHuedliO-)

Another Peak: Daily confirmed cases in Germany will raise above 10.000 after having been below 10.000 for a period of at least 3 weeks in 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=~DEU

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/_MkmWO2iL)

Nachdem die Schulen in 2021 geöffnet werden, werden Sie in mind. 2 Bundesländern noch einmal wieder geschlossen

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/FdAS0Fco2)

EU

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Vaccination stats on ourworldindata.org

Politik

Scotland holds a new independence referendum before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/I6qbwLMoH)

No other EU country announces plan to leave till 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/LE-oknnkk)

Xi still in power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/PkBaQDhEo)

Putin still in power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/NoHBmJdgO)

Boris Johnson still in Power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/xWKcIqD--)

Nordstream 2 wird bis 2022-01-31 in Betrieb genommen

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/vUMKBR0tu)

Bundestagswahlen

Laschet wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/FGTw_gLTA)

Söder wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/QRaHzhXBA)

Spahn wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/-jckCYAlg)

Grüne vor SPD im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/zioUkcaJu)

Grüne vor CDU/CSU im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/7OoOb_kUX)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine neue große Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/Og5yfjLHw)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Grün-Schwarze Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/10aQ5zskW)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Jamaica Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/AQrX83Zhe)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Minderheitenregierung

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/8YzixUICA)

Wahlbeteiligung Bundestagswahl 2021

https://elicit.org/questions/6a5G5OBHZ

Economy / Science / Misc

BIP Deutschland 2021 in Mrd. Euro

https://elicit.org/questions/09PQVLt4O

DAX Stand am 2022-01-31

https://elicit.org/questions/HeNg0IdZM

SpaceX BFR/Starship reaches Orbit before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/tWlUVtOv3)

At least two more countries enact full or partial prohibitions on Bitcoin by 2022-01-31 -> more red on this map.

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/TSycteyC_)

Collision of at least two satellites or spaceships in earth orbit by 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/kARJwgmfC)

Kessler Syndrome event with at least 100 satellites affected by 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/TAShWwu0E)

EA Münster

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe trifft sich immernoch regelmäßig (min 2x im Januar 2022)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/zaroX8Ot9)

Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/3ky_2L9JQ)

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe hat mind. einen Workshoptag/-wochenende in 2021 organisiert

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/biQIO3XXr)

markov_userJan 30 20212

"Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend" - how will cancelled meetups (due to lack of attendees, if that ever happens) count into this? Not at all, or as <=5 attendees? (kind of reminds me of how the Deutsche Bahn decided to not count cancelled trains as delayed)

Also, coming from EA Bonn where our average attendance is ~4 people, I find the implications of this question impressive. :D

AchimFeb 3 20211

Wie definieren wir große Koalition?

PPaulJan 27 20211

I'd like us to change the wording of the peak corona cases question. The 3 weeks are an unnecessary complication imo, because that could easily not happen, while I think the rest of the question will happen. Could we say something like higher cases than previous (Dec) peak? Open to other suggestions

EA Forum Bot Site
EA Forum

EA Münster Predictions 2021

2

COVID19

Germany

EU

Politik

Bundestagswahlen

Economy / Science / Misc

EA Münster

2

Reactions