Ab wann gilt eine Schule eigentlich als geschlossen?
I'd like us to change the wording of the peak corona cases question. The 3 weeks are an unnecessary complication imo, because that could easily not happen, while I think the rest of the question will happen. Could we say something like higher cases than previous (Dec) peak? Open to other suggestions
These are our internal local group predictions, we just used a post to get quick elicit.com embeds. Please do not upvote.
Immune Escape Variant of COVID19 discovered against which the current BioNTech vaccine is only <50% effective before 2022-01-31
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-04-01
(metaculus approval pending)
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-07-01
(metaculus approval pending)
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-10-01
(metaculus approval pending)
Silvester 2021: Feiern mit bis zu 10 Leuten in einem geschlossenen Raum ohne Maske erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte
Silvester 2021: Feuerwerk erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte
Another Peak: Daily confirmed cases in Germany will raise above 10.000 after having been below 10.000 for a period of at least 3 weeks in 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=~DEU
Nachdem die Schulen in 2021 geöffnet werden, werden Sie in mind. 2 Bundesländern noch einmal wieder geschlossen
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-04-01
(metaculus approval pending)
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-07-01
(metaculus approval pending)
How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-10-01
(metaculus approval pending)
Vaccination stats on ourworldindata.org
Scotland holds a new independence referendum before 2022-01-31
No other EU country announces plan to leave till 2022-01-31
Xi still in power on 2022-01-31
Putin still in power on 2022-01-31
Boris Johnson still in Power on 2022-01-31
Nordstream 2 wird bis 2022-01-31 in Betrieb genommen
Laschet wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
Söder wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
Spahn wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
Grüne vor SPD im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021
Grüne vor CDU/CSU im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine neue große Koalition
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Grün-Schwarze Koalition
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Jamaica Koalition
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Minderheitenregierung
Wahlbeteiligung Bundestagswahl 2021
https://elicit.org/questions/6a5G5OBHZ
BIP Deutschland 2021 in Mrd. Euro
https://elicit.org/questions/09PQVLt4O
DAX Stand am 2022-01-31
https://elicit.org/questions/HeNg0IdZM
SpaceX BFR/Starship reaches Orbit before 2022-01-31
At least two more countries enact full or partial prohibitions on Bitcoin by 2022-01-31 -> more red on this map.
Collision of at least two satellites or spaceships in earth orbit by 2022-01-31
Kessler Syndrome event with at least 100 satellites affected by 2022-01-31
Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe trifft sich immernoch regelmäßig (min 2x im Januar 2022)
Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend
Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe hat mind. einen Workshoptag/-wochenende in 2021 organisiert
"Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend" - how will cancelled meetups (due to lack of attendees, if that ever happens) count into this? Not at all, or as <=5 attendees? (kind of reminds me of how the Deutsche Bahn decided to not count cancelled trains as delayed)
Also, coming from EA Bonn where our average attendance is ~4 people, I find the implications of this question impressive. :D
Wie definieren wir große Koalition?