I'm currently in the EA introductory course and I asked this question in my cohort and I felt like I learned a lot from it! We were discussing existential risks. Here is the question:

I think an interesting question is: if anyone predicted the atomic bomb maybe a hundred or so years before it was invented, did they predict an event like the Cuban Missile Crisis happening? I feel like that would be our only precedent for an "existential risk"-like event.

From there we discussed what it would be like to be that person trying to convince others, knowing that person at the time, or possibly what that person could have accomplished in setting up nuclear safety today. I don't have any answers but I figured the EA forums would be a good more permanent place for this question.

What are your thoughts? Do you know if there was such a person?