To understand long-termism, we must first clarify its core essence and fundamental significance. As Charles Dickens wrote in *A Tale of Two Cities*, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Historically, the Industrial Revolution dramatically enhanced productivity, spurring rapid economic growth, while capitalism generated substantial short-term gains. However, this often occurred at the expense of the environment—effectively borrowing from the future to pay for the present, a strategy that is inherently unsustainable.
Long-termism is not simply about sacrificing the present for the future. Rather, it is a philosophy of decision-making aimed at maximizing total value over the full lifecycle. It requires that all short-term benefits be evaluated in terms of their net present value across time. For instance, the World Bank’s 2016 report, *The Cost of Air Pollution*, found that the welfare losses due to air pollution exceed 6% of global GDP. When long-term environmental restoration and public health costs are accounted for, many seemingly profitable fossil fuel projects reveal a negative net present value. Interests can be divided into short-term and long-term, and any evaluation of overall benefits must consider both. Pursuing immediate gains at the cost of long-term value can lead to a net decrease in overall welfare. The impacts of long-term interests are generally more profound and fundamental, and should carry greater weight in decision-making. Should long-term interests lose their sustainability or capacity for accumulation, then a focus on short-term gains might ironically become the more “forward-looking” strategy.
The value of long-termism is most evident in the environmental sector, which underpins humanity’s survival. As the costs of environmental degradation command an increasing share of total welfare calculations, a global consciousness has emerged and been passed down through generations—from the warnings in Rachel Carson’s *Silent Spring*, to the Green Belt Movement in Kenya, and to the activism of Greta Thunberg. The pursuit of intergenerational equity transcends national and temporal boundaries. Early environmental advocates, driven by strategic foresight or a sense of responsibility toward future generations, began raising public awareness of these issues. Importantly, long-term environmental goals can align with short-term interests: efforts to reduce environmental harm have stimulated innovation in renewable energy, which in turn drives technological progress and economic growth. Thus, ecological preservation and technological advancement can be mutually reinforcing.
Long-termism also plays a critical role in urban development. In the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans experienced accelerated gentrification due to policy biases and other factors. While an influx of new residents made the city appear more prosperous—similar to other major U.S. metropolitan areas—and developers secured large short-term profits, the displacement of African American and indigenous communities, along with the erosion of local street culture, undermined the city’s unique identity. In the long run, economic growth driven primarily by gentrification often undermines sustainable development. This highlights a central challenge of long-termism: short-term incentives, such as political election cycles and pressure for capital returns, often conflict directly with long-term goals that require patience and sustained investment. Truly successful urban renewal should embrace “inclusive development” that preserves community indigenous culture while upgrading physical infrastructure. It must find a new equilibrium between short-term and long-term interests, allowing immediate actions to activate lasting vitality, thereby enhancing both social and ecological resilience.
At a global level, long-termism serves as a crucial foundation for international peace and stability. The saying, “Nations have no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests,” remains relevant. In recent years, China’s Belt and Road Initiative exemplifies this principle by promoting mutually beneficial cooperation that stimulates short-term economic development while also building a network of shared long-term strategic interests. This initiative aligns closely with the tenets of long-termism—advancing regional economic development while reducing geopolitical friction and contributing to global stability.
Ultimately, long-termism entails an ongoing struggle against humanity’s innate preference for immediate rewards. It calls for a new global compact—not only among nations, but also across generations. This compact requires the integration of “lifecycle net value assessment” into all decision-making layers, from corporate governance and urban planning to international cooperation. Only through such institutional innovation can we effectively balance short-term demands with long-term value, and move collectively toward an inclusive, resilient, and sustainable future.