This is a linkpost for https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00320-6/fulltext
A mathematical modelling study to estimate:
- Number of additional lives lost if no vaccines had been distributed: 14.4 million deaths averted by vaccine distribution, representing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths during the first year of vaccination
- Additional deaths that could have been averted had the vaccination targets of 20% by COVAX and 40% set by WHO been achieved by the end of 2021: An additional 45% of deaths could have been averted if each country met the COVAX target, and 111% of deaths could have been averted if each country met the WHO target.
111% of deaths averted?
Yeah it is a little bit of a counter-inuitive presentation.
Basically of vaccines low income countries did receive in 2021, they averted 180 300 (171 400–188 900) deaths.
If LIC had achieved the WHO target of 40% vaccination rate, they would have averted an additional 200 000 (187 900–211 900) deaths
200 000/ 180 300 = 111%