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Has anyone seen an outside view analysis of the cost of animal product substitutes? 

This could take the shape of an experience curve graph that would show the price of meat substitutes per dry kilogram and also ideally per kilogram of protein as a function of cumulative production. Researchers have found that this is more robust than a cost over time, but even that would be helpful. 

Also, it would be good to see a cost versus cumulative production of dairy substitutes per dry kilogram and/or per kilogram of protein. Of course we might get a breakthrough, but I think the outside views would give us reasonable priors for when the substitutes might become cost competitive. 

Similar data on plant-derived foods such as hummus would also be welcome.




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If you haven't seen it yet, you might find this report on the viability of cultured meat helpful. Open Philanthropy commissioned the report.

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