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Having estimates of irrecoverable civilizational collapse is extremely important because it determines whether nuclear risks and pandemics are X-risks or non-existential global catastrophic risks. So I'd love to have people's thoughts on this, especially from people who have thought about it. It doesn't matter if it's a rough estimate. 

The only investigation I know of is Luisa Rodriguez's one and my understanding was that she didn't put a lot of weight on it but it seems like it's an argument that seems important in other thinker's worldviews (e.g Toby Ord mentioned this in a private discussion to explain the high probability he gives to biorisks being an X-risk) so I'd like to get a better sense on people's view on that question: 

What's the likelihood of irrecoverable civilizational collapse if 90% of the human population dies? 




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This question feels similar in spirit to the one I asked a couple weeks ago, "Odds of recovering values after collapse?", so OP you might be interested in checking out that question and the responses to it.

Do you think that biorisks/nuclear war could plausibly cause us never to recover our values? What's the weight you give to such a scenario? 

(I want to know if the weight you put on "worse values" is due to stable totalitarianism due to new technologies or due to collapse -> bad people win).

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