Adam Binks

711 karmaJoined Pursuing a doctoral degree (e.g. PhD)Working (0-5 years)London, UK


I'm building tools for forecasting and thinking at Sage. Currently building AI Digest,  Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions.

Previously I was doing a PhD in HCI at St Andrews, and worked at Clearer Thinking.


Tweeting, sometimes about EA:


Topic contributions

AI for epistemics/forecasting is something we're considering working on at Sage - we're hiring technical members of staff. I'd be interested to chat to other people thinking about this.

Depending on the results of our experiments, we might integrate this into our forecasting platform Fatebook, or build something new, or decide not to focus on this.

[Do you have a work trial? This will be a deal breaker for many]

Based on your conversations with developers, do you have a rough guess at what % this is a deal breaker for?

I'm curious if this is typically specific to an in-person work trial, vs how much deal-breaking would be avoided by a remote trial, e.g. 3 days Sat-Mon.

Thanks for the newsletter!

Looks like a typo:
> a version of GPT-4 released in 2023 outperformed a version of GPT-4 released in 2021

As well as Fatebook for Slack, at Sage we've made other infrastructure aimed at EAs (amongst others!):

  • Fatebook: the fastest way to make and track predictions
  • Fatebook for Chrome: Instantly make and embed predictions, in Google Docs and anywhere else on the web
  • Quantified Intuitions: Practice assigning credences to outcomes with a quick feedback loop

This month's Estimation Game is about effective altruism! You can play here:

Ten Fermi estimation questions to help you train your estimation skills. Play solo, or with a team - e.g. with friends, coworkers, or your EA group (see info for organisers).

It's also worth checking the archive for other estimation games you might be interested in, e.g. we've ran games on AI, animal welfare + alt proteins, nuclear risk, and big picture history.

I'm curious about B12 supplements - I currently take a multivitamin which has 50µg B12, my partner takes a multivitamin with 10µg B12. Should we be taking additional B12 tablets on top of this? (We're both vegan)

I saw in that post a recommendation for 100µg tablets, but google says the RDA is 2.4µg, do you know why there's this gap?

I think some subreddits do a good job of moderating to create a culture which is different from the default reddit culture, e.g. /r/askhistorians. See this post for an example, where there are a bunch of comments deleted, including one answer which didn't cite enough sources. Maybe this is what you have in mind when you refer to "moderating with an iron fist" though, which you mention might be destructive!

Seems like the challenge with reddit moderation is that users are travelling between subreddits all the time, and most have low quality/effort discussion norms. Whereas on the Forum, the userbase is more siloed, which I guess would make good quality moderation easier.

We've added a new deck of questions to the calibration training app - The World, then and now.

What was the world like 200 years ago, and how has it changed? Featuring charts from Our World in Data.

Thanks to Johanna Einsiedler and Jakob Graabak for helping build this deck!

We've also split the existing questions into decks, so you can focus on the topics you're most interested in:

Ah thank you! I've just pushed what should be a fix for this (hard to fully test as I'm in the UK).

Load more