I’m an ardent critic of the use of naive EV calculations in EA. But what determines whether something is a naive EV calculation isn’t whether the probability is low, but whether the level of uncertainty in that probability is super high.
Any EV calc we “came up with” about mites would be uncertain to the point of being worthy of zero credence. It would be a Pascal’s mugging.
The case for stunning shrimp, as far as I can tell, is far less uncertain. I think Omnizoid is right that it’s hard to dispute it being a very strong bet.
But I also want to mention that the more I learn about our “surest bets” for doing good (e.g bednets) the more uncertain I discover them to be. This leads me to be super reluctant to go “all in” on anything the way you suggest we might be inclined to with the EV calcs for microscopic organisms.
In conclusion: SWP looks like a highly cost-effective org for doing good in the world. We should support it, but we shouldn’t go all in on it or any other cause/intervention. The world is messy enough that we should be highly pluralistic (even while continuing to prioritize and make trade-offs)
That’s fair. I think we should try both. I also think we particularly need to test ways of motivating non “animal people” to donate to farm animal welfare, as otherwise orgs like GWWC will only be able to capture latent willingness to donate to AW. We need increased willingness to get where we need to be on funding
Hey hey!
If you’re talking about getting GHD donors to give to GWWC et al themselves, then I agree that this converts some (<10%) of these donors’ donations to animal welfare. But GWWC at al. are mostly funded by grants as far as I’m aware. Is your suggestion that they fundraise more from individual donors, on the margin?
If you’re talking about getting GHD donors to give through GWWC et al, then I’m doubtful any significant amount will go to animal welfare, as they’ll presumably pick GHD charities and funds on GWWC et al’s platforms.
Hello!
After receiving impassioned criticisms on our announcement post last week, I decided to use a plane trip (I’ve been on leave) to reflect on them with a scout mindset to make sure Thom and I aren’t missing anything important that would mean we should change our approach. I’m glad I did, because on my way back from leave I noticed this new post. I thought it would help to share my reflections.
To set expectations: We won’t be able to continue engaging in the discussion on this here. This is not because we consider the “case closed”, but because we are a team of 2 running a brand new organization so we need to prioritise how we use our time. It’s important (and a good use of time) for us to make sure we consider criticisms and that we are confident we are doing the right thing.[1] But there is a limit to how much time we can dedicate to this particular discussion. Please enjoy the ongoing discussion, and apologies that we can’t prioritise further engagement with it :)
Before I get to my reflections, I want to point out an unhelpful equivocation I’ve seen in the discourse: Some of the comments speak of donation matching as if it’s one very specific thing, and they claim or imply that we are doing that one thing. In reality, “donation matching” can refer to a wide range of arrangements that can work in all sorts of ways.
The most common form of donation matching that I’ve seen involves a large individual or institutional donor promising to match all donations to a specific charity 1:1 until a certain date. This can be fully counterfactual (if the large donor chooses to participate in the match where they wouldn’t otherwise have given to that charity or any other) or it can be not counterfactual at all (if they would have given that amount to that charity no matter what), or somewhere in between. What we’re doing is different to this, as we explain here and below, which is why we don’t call it donation matching, as we aren’t wanting people to import expectations about how it works from previous experiences they may have had with common forms of donation matching.
It’s fair to have qualms with how some forms of donation matching work (or even all forms of it, as some commenters do). But most of the reasons given for concern about donation matching apply to some and not all forms of it. We would be able to make better sense of this collectively by being precise about what forms of donation matching we do and don’t have problems with and for what reasons.
Okay, on to my reflections on 5 criticisms of FarmKind’s bonus system:
We received this criticism: “The fact that you can't donate $X and get more than $X going to your favourite charity means I don't really feel like my donation is being meaningfully matched”.
We never promise or imply that it would be possible to donate $X in total and have >$X go to your Favorite Charity (after splitting and receiving a bonus). We make it very clear that it won’t:
Our comms make it very clear that FarmKind’s purpose is to help users donate to fix factory farming through our Super-effective Charities, with the ability to support your Favorite Charity at the same time and to get a bonus included as perks. It’s hard to see how anyone could read our comms and see things the way the critics are worried they will, and so it’s hard to see how anyone could be misled:
We received this criticism: "The 'bonus' is presented to users as if it (a) will go in part to their favorite charity and (b) is money that would not otherwise be going to help animals, but neither of these are true"[2]
We think this is incorrect, because it quite literally IS true that the Favorite Charity receives money from the Bonus Fund. This is how the money flows: Every.org splits the regular donors donation between their chosen Favorite and Super-Effective charity and then Every.org disburses money to each from the Bonus Fund in the exact way that’s summarised during the donation process:
Critics have pointed out that the effect of these cash flows is the same as a different set of cash flows where more of the donor’s money was given to their Favorite Charity than indicated (e.g. $90 of the $150 in the donation went to the Favorite Charity), and all of the bonus went to the Super-Effective Charity ($30 in this case). Those critics claim that this is a simpler set of cash flows, and a simpler/clearer way to understand what has happened. We disagree that it’s simpler or clearer, and even if it were, it wouldn’t be what actually happened, and it wouldn’t make our description misleading.
This is an interesting and nuanced one. The criticism goes something like:
There are valid aspects of this criticism, which I nonetheless disagree with, and there are invalid aspects. Let’s start with what the criticism gets right and wrong about the reality of the counterfactuality of the bonus system:
Regular donations do, in expectation, cause more counterfactual donations to occur. Let’s talk through it, considering counterfactuals in both the narrower/direct and the broader/indirect sense:
1. The narrower/direct sense — i.e. Thinking just about the money that’s already in the bonus fund when a regular donation is made:
2. The broader/indirect sense — Regular donations on our platform, which receive a bonus, use up the supply of money that’s in the pool. The more regular donations that occur (i.e. the more demand there is to redeem our bonuses), the more that folks who like how our bonus system is motivation donations will want to keep the system going, by donating to the Bonus Fund. In particular, if the Bonus Fund is running low, we will communicate this to people who like our bonus system, imploring them to donate to keep the system going. As such, each regular donation increases, in expectation, the amount of money contributed to the Bonus Fund.
This is like the how buying one of chickens at the grocery store (which the grocer has already bought and so pre-committed to selling or throwing away) increases the expected amount of chicken they will buy next time. If you think that lower demand for animal products can decrease the amount of animal products produced, you should understand how increased demand for bonus funding can increase the amount of money given to the Bonus Fund.
But what would have happened to the money donated to the Bonus Fund were it not for past demand?
Certainly not. Our communications are accurate, both in the ‘large print’ and the ‘fine print’.
It is possible to be misleading without being dishonest, however. This can be done by presenting information in a way that leads someone to draw incorrect conclusions, even though the facts themselves are technically true. Typical ways to do this is by omitting certain information, or framing the facts in a particular way.[3]
To cut right to the chase: Will some people who don’t read our communications carefully think that they’re having direct counterfactual impact on total donations, when they aren’t [as per (1)(a)]? Probably yes, there is always a risk that some people will get the wrong idea. However, we don’t believe that this constitutes misleading communication. Let me explain why:
This is also an interesting one, which we’re grateful was raised, and we will incorporate this into future comms.
Such a double count is likely, and is one of the challenges with counting impact using standard counterfactual reasoning (see discussion here and here). These kinds of double-countings are actually really common. For example, whenever two advocacy groups both play a necessary role in achieving a policy change, they will generally both conclude that the counterfactual impact of their work is the full impact of the policy change. This double count of impact can lead to an inaccurate view of the cost-effectiveness of each group, leading to suboptimal grantmaking decisions.
What are we to do about this? Surely the answer isn’t to not encourage both groups to participate in our bonus system — after all, the participation of each group counterfactually causes higher impact. Each group benefits (in terms of increased impact. We don’t think the answer is to introduce Shapley Values or some other more complicated means of impact attribution, which would compromise our ability to communicate the value to each group. Rather, we should probably talk about the increased impact each group will have in general terms, without using specific numbers unless someone asks for them and/or we heavily caveat them. Having received this criticism, we would not use specific numbers the way we did here again.
It’s worth mentioning that, of course, resource allocation is extremely far from perfectly efficient, so the real cost of these kinds of double counts is probably very low. It’s also worth reiterating that this problem applies to nearly every intervention in EA — it is not a particular problem of donation matching.
It is reasonable to disagree about what is and is not ‘EA’. For example, we have similar disagreements with many EAs’ cause area prioritisation, epistemics, use of funding, communications styles. We also see many projects that don’t meet what we see as minimum standards in terms of the existence of feedback loops, theories of change, or measurement and evaluation.
We personally wouldn’t choose to claim there is no place for these people or projects in EA. We think that there is value in a more pluralistic and diverse EA community that takes many different approaches, all motivated by the honest desire to do the most good we can.
I’m sure it’s clear from our choice to launch this platform that we think this is a good thing to be doing, and that it’s our attempt at doing altruism effectively. If some folks who disagree decide that FarmKind does not belong in effective altruism, there is likely nothing we can say that will change their mind. That’s ok.
I don’t have more to say about this criticism except to reiterate that I respect its intention, I disagree and I thank people for sharing it. We considered Jeff’s critique post of Giving Multiplier prior to deciding to launch FarmKind and we were grateful to come across this perspective before rather than after making the decision — it influenced decisions we made for the better.
Thanks for reading, and happy foruming!
To that end, if any new points are made in response that we haven’t considered, we will consider them and may change our mind, but we may not neccessarily report back about this.
Criticism 2 is about part (a) of this statement. We discuss part (b) under Criticism 3
For example, stating "Our product has been used by over 1 million people!", when 99% of people used it once, were dissatisfied and never used it again. The statement is true (and in that sense, not dishonest), but it omits context so that it might lead someone to believe that 1 million people are active, happy users, which isn't the case.
3rd example: The donation platform Ribon using the half-sentence “Ensure free-range living for farm animals” to describe the impact of donating to a specific charity, even though no given donation can possibly guarantee this outcome is achieved (I think this is acceptable, and I’d hope that further comms were available for those who are interested enough to read more to understand how their donations might have an impact).
4th example: Saying “I like ice cream”, even if you think that the self is an illusion (an illusion which your statement reinforces), such that you’re giving the false impression that you think the self is a real thing (I include this example because I imagine that even our most steadfast critics would agree this is honest communication. The kind of person who caveats their use of the word ‘I’ is probably failing to communicate)
No I don’t think “part of the pot goes to your account” is a fair way to characterize your offer. I think you may have edited your comment as I was responding to it.
It’s clear we agree on what would have otherwise happened to the money already in the bonus fund at the time of a regular donation. I don’t think we need a hypothetical example to dig into that any further. It’s also clear what we disagree on (please see other comments so I don’t have to state it again). I don’t aim to change your mind on those points, and so I’ll leave things there :)
I agree with your interpretation of this case (except for what the most straightforward way to describe it is), but you seem to be missing the broader point about the interplay between supply and demand for matching funding which means that both groups play a causal role in increasing donations to the favorite and super-effective charities alike. I understand you think the way we’ve communicated this is misleading, not in the spirit of EA or otherwise wrong. This is a valuable perspective, for which I thank you, but we respectfully disagree.
I hope what we do now agree on is that, regarding your comment “the site gives the impression that part of the bonus goes to the favorite charity, but that isn't usefully true”, it IS true that part of the bonus goes to the favorite charity.
That’s all the time I have to spend on this topic. I hope to have clarified some of the facts about how the platform works.
That people are willing to donate through a platform that clearly sign-posts that you don’t get >$X donated to your favorite charity if you donate $X split between two charities IS evidence that many donors don’t share Ben’s expectation about how our bonus system should or does work. That’s all I suggested it was evidence for. I’ve only weighed in here to correct false or misleading claims made about how the platform works.
As for whether how the platform works is aligned with EA or not, or misleading or not, I haven’t weighed in because I’m sure it’s clear from our choice to launch this platform that we think this is a good thing to be doing, and that it’s our attempt at doing altruism effectively. It’s reasonable to disagree and I understand and respect your disagreement. I have similar disagreements with many EAs’ approaches, decisions, cause area prioritisation, communications styles and so on. Once there aren’t any remaining misunderstandings about how our platform works, all that’s left is one of those kinds of disagreements. I don’t have much to say about your position except that I respect it, I disagree and I thank you for sharing it. I considered your critique of Giving Multiplier prior to deciding to launch our platform and was grateful to come across this perspective before rather than after making the decision. So thank you again!
If that’s what it takes for you to feel your donation is being meaningfully matched then it’s another reason this platform isn’t the right choice for you. But that’s a very specific requirement that our platform never claims to meet, and that plenty of folks don’t share with you, as evidenced by existing donations through our platform. Many other donors are excited by the prospect of having both their donation to the favorite and super-effective charity receive a bonus. This is what happens on our platform, and is what’s laid out as they step through the process. No one is donating under any misapprehension that after splitting their donation and receiving a bonus they get more than the total amount they donated given to their favorite charity.
We are not “baiting” people in with the promise to cause more dollars than they donate to go to their favorite charity and then “switching” to a split and boost mechanism. Rather, the platform (as we lay out on our landing page, and repeat throughout) promises to allow you to help fix factory farming while supporting your favorite charity too, and to get your donations to both charities boosted. The platform isn’t about getting more than the total amount you donated to go to your favorite charity (it’s about splitting and boosting your donation) so the fact that it doesn’t do that is a feature and not a bug
Good question Abraham!
The impact fund does help more animals, because it includes the Shrimp Welfare Project, but we recently decided to stop displaying the number of shrimp helped, because for the average donor we think this is counterproductive:
But this means that the number of animals helped that we display for a given donation is lower for Impact Fund than Climate Fund which I agree is confusing. I'll think about what we can do about this. Thanks for pointing it out!
Note: There's also the matter of how much each animal is helped, which is a way that a charity with a lower animals helped per dollar could still be more impactful per dollar. You can see the spreadsheet underlying these impact estimates here.