I actually think there was a major lawsuit about agreements between organizations not to poach one another's employees. https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/apple-google-others-settle-anti-poaching-lawsuit-for-415-million/
Can't wait for EAGuantanamo! Kidding of course, but I'm not sure how valuable it'd be given how difficult it is for former convicts to get jobs (e.g. low expected earnings to contribute to high impact charities down the line). But for groups doing work on recidivism and the like, I do hope they are recruiting out of pools of ex-cons to really understand what the problems are that folks face.
At this point I'd think higher interest rates have knocked many overinflated stonks down to a reasonable level (at least based on the bloodbath that is the tech stock market over the last few months), that's not to say of course that other risks haven't been adequately priced in... like the most valuable company in the world for instance being hugely dependent on the manufacturing of a geopolitical competitor to the U.S.
My understanding is that persistent higher inflation may actually be very good for the U.S. government as it'll essentially erode the debt as inflation eats away at the value of the loans, so that should be taken into account. Of course, it's bad for stability, especially if you runaway inflation, but with high employment mitigating some of the downside this seems like a major positive factor for the U.S. gov given the amount of debt it holds.
Edit to add: Thanks for taking the time to write this up, found it enjoyable and was a fun thought experiment!
I think if you talk to a reporter, unless you explicitly note before beginning that the conversation is off the record and they agree to it, you have to assume that anything you say can be shared.
I'm not sure I understand why this is the best donation target, even for people who want to donate specifically to a political race. For one, it seems all prediction markets and forecasters like FiveThirtyEight give R's a ~75%+ chance of taking back the house, so this single race seems unlikely to be particularly impactful. What's more, the Salinas Erickson race seems relatively safe for D's and I've seen no mention of it anywhere being a tossup. This feels like something I'd get in a campaign email down to the closing line pulling on heartstrings and then immediately asking for a donation.
I mostly agree but a few counterpoints (I've been in DC for about 1yr total now).
The summers are absolutely miserable if you dislike humidity.
In general compared to SF and even Berlin I've found people (outside of the EA community) to be much more reactive and zero sum in their thinking than people who dream big and have visions of the future they want to build towards.
Echoing the company town comment- I feel like every conversation is about politics/policy/international affairs, which bugged me in SF about tech (there's so much more to life! ) and was one of the things I loved about Berlin where I felt there was a much better mix of artists, tech people, government workers, etc.
I have mixed feelings about OP's #4 as I have met quite a few mission oriented people, but I also meet a lot of very cynical and burnt out people, especially at work.
Many meetings feel very transactional (I see jokes all the time about people wondering if they're on a date or networking) and people cycle in and out of the city quickly and often.
On net however, I think it's a decent American city to live in and it certainly does punch above its weight for museums, architecture, restaurants, and even flights given its status as the capital.
There are substantial kickbacks (called “site commissions”), where a large percentage of the per-minute rates are paid to the facilities for the right to the contract. A typical rate is 50%, and these can run as high as 96%. Given they get a percentage of every dollar spent, the facilities also have an incentive to keep costs high to increase their revenue, not to give the end consumer the lowest cost of connection.
Does any of this money also get sent back to the county/state too? Just wondering what other stakeholders are benefitting from the status quo.
Given the way these prisons are run (it seems often poorly with a profit motive rather than one trying to help reduce recidivism) why not just start a nonprofit private prison from scratch and manage the whole thing? Palmer Luckey mentioned this in an interview a while back as something he'd be working on if he hadn't decided to build Anduril: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jilliandonfro/2019/10/31/palmer-luckey-oculus-anduril-forbes-under-30-summit-nonprofit-prisons/?sh=7f3d1615ecee
An offshoot of lead emission in the atmosphere might be the work being done at LEEP (Lead Exposure Elimination Project) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ktN29JneoQCYktqih/seven-more-learnings-from-leep
Thanks! Sorry for the ignorance but for #4 then, how would you go about figuring out 1) what job you would be good at if you joined (and in which branch to try to join) and then 2) how to make sure that you actually were assigned to that job when you do join?
An unrelated q- is there any additional upside joining a new branch like Space Force?
I actually think there was a major lawsuit about agreements between organizations not to poach one another's employees. https://www.cnet.com/tech/tech-industry/apple-google-others-settle-anti-poaching-lawsuit-for-415-million/
Can't wait for EAGuantanamo! Kidding of course, but I'm not sure how valuable it'd be given how difficult it is for former convicts to get jobs (e.g. low expected earnings to contribute to high impact charities down the line). But for groups doing work on recidivism and the like, I do hope they are recruiting out of pools of ex-cons to really understand what the problems are that folks face.
At this point I'd think higher interest rates have knocked many overinflated stonks down to a reasonable level (at least based on the bloodbath that is the tech stock market over the last few months), that's not to say of course that other risks haven't been adequately priced in... like the most valuable company in the world for instance being hugely dependent on the manufacturing of a geopolitical competitor to the U.S.
My understanding is that persistent higher inflation may actually be very good for the U.S. government as it'll essentially erode the debt as inflation eats away at the value of the loans, so that should be taken into account. Of course, it's bad for stability, especially if you runaway inflation, but with high employment mitigating some of the downside this seems like a major positive factor for the U.S. gov given the amount of debt it holds.
Edit to add: Thanks for taking the time to write this up, found it enjoyable and was a fun thought experiment!
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/aug/inflation-real-value-debt-double-edged-sword#:~:text=An%20increase%20in%20the%20price,higher%20prices%20increase%20nominal%20GDP.
I think if you talk to a reporter, unless you explicitly note before beginning that the conversation is off the record and they agree to it, you have to assume that anything you say can be shared.
I'm not sure I understand why this is the best donation target, even for people who want to donate specifically to a political race. For one, it seems all prediction markets and forecasters like FiveThirtyEight give R's a ~75%+ chance of taking back the house, so this single race seems unlikely to be particularly impactful. What's more, the Salinas Erickson race seems relatively safe for D's and I've seen no mention of it anywhere being a tossup. This feels like something I'd get in a campaign email down to the closing line pulling on heartstrings and then immediately asking for a donation.
I mostly agree but a few counterpoints (I've been in DC for about 1yr total now).
On net however, I think it's a decent American city to live in and it certainly does punch above its weight for museums, architecture, restaurants, and even flights given its status as the capital.
Does any of this money also get sent back to the county/state too? Just wondering what other stakeholders are benefitting from the status quo.
Given the way these prisons are run (it seems often poorly with a profit motive rather than one trying to help reduce recidivism) why not just start a nonprofit private prison from scratch and manage the whole thing? Palmer Luckey mentioned this in an interview a while back as something he'd be working on if he hadn't decided to build Anduril: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jilliandonfro/2019/10/31/palmer-luckey-oculus-anduril-forbes-under-30-summit-nonprofit-prisons/?sh=7f3d1615ecee
An offshoot of lead emission in the atmosphere might be the work being done at LEEP (Lead Exposure Elimination Project) https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ktN29JneoQCYktqih/seven-more-learnings-from-leep
Thanks! Sorry for the ignorance but for #4 then, how would you go about figuring out 1) what job you would be good at if you joined (and in which branch to try to join) and then 2) how to make sure that you actually were assigned to that job when you do join?
An unrelated q- is there any additional upside joining a new branch like Space Force?