Hi Alistair, I appreciate your engagement on this thread and think you're presenting an important perspective. Quick question: how would you define most of PETA's spending if not animal liberationist? I found this surprising!
I bet Greg Colbourn 10 k€ that AI will not kill us all by the end of 2027
Good luck, I hope you win!
If for some reason I am not able to decide (e.g. if I die before 2028), the transfer must be made to my lastly stated organisation of choice, currently The Humane League (THL).
Hi Vasco. I also feel unclear about what it means for RSI to properly begin; I’m assuming humans are still in the loop at Anthropic. I’m reminded of Toby Ord’s analogy:
I like to think of it in terms of a group of hikers seeing a mountain in the distance, towering up into the clouds and beyond, with its snowy peak catching the sun’s light. They talk animatedly about how amazing it would be to climb so high that they are inside a cloud. Or imagine being above the clouds, looking over them like an angel. After many hours of climbing, they notice there is a faint haze. Are they inside the cloud now? The mist gradually gets thicker until they can only see 10 metres ahead. Are they inside it now? Then it drops to 9 metres. Then 8. Then visibility starts to increase again. After an hour there is only the slightest haze. Are they above the clouds now? Another 30 minutes and there is no haze, and they can all agree they are above the clouds.
It is clear that at some point they were inside the cloud and sometime later were above it. And it is clear that these were sensible and useful concepts. For example, they took precautions like roping themselves together for the journey through the cloud due to the low visibility and took cameras with them because they knew they could take beautiful photos above the clouds. A lack of sharp boundaries doesn’t make these concepts useless. But they were admittedly a lot more useful when the hikers were on the ground, planning their route, and a lot less useful in the debatable boundary zones.
Has anybody taken you up on the bet yet? I’m not betting; I have no idea what’s going on!
You have a donkey, so have I, and they graze in the same field. The day comes when I conceive a dislike for mine. I go to shoot it, draw a bead on it, fire: the brute falls in its tracks. I inspect the victim, and find to my horror that it is your donkey. I appear on your doorstep with the remains and say what? 'I say, old sport, I'm awfully sorry, &c, I've shot your donkey by accident'? Or 'by mistake'? Then again, I go to shoot my donkey as before, draw a bead on it, fire but as I do so, the beasts move, and to my horror yours falls. Again the scene on the doorstep what do I say? 'By mistake'? Or 'by accident'?
Here's JL Austin on mistakes and accidents; you might find it interesting.
I find this really interesting. Re: 'people who already knew about population ethics erred towards totalism', do you reckon this is because some many respondents from the ~EA sphere? Would we expect totalism to be the most popular view among academic philosophers who are familiar with population ethics?
I was struck that Dario (1) says that recursive self-improvement has already begun, and (2) says that rogue agents could take over “the entire Internet” within six to 12 months. (This seems similar to Ajeya’s prediction that agents could establish a more permanent rogue deployment inside an AGI company within six months).
Jacob, together with Samara Mendez, previously wrote a shallow review about butter and margarine price substitution. They found that some studies, surprisingly, show them to be complementary goods, and thought this was primarily due to weird consumer behaviour not always reflecting econ 101, and secondarily due to econ methodologies always not capturing reality.
Hi Alistair, I appreciate your engagement on this thread and think you're presenting an important perspective. Quick question: how would you define most of PETA's spending if not animal liberationist? I found this surprising!
Good luck, I hope you win!
Where would you now like the donation to go?
Hi Vasco. I also feel unclear about what it means for RSI to properly begin; I’m assuming humans are still in the loop at Anthropic. I’m reminded of Toby Ord’s analogy:
Has anybody taken you up on the bet yet? I’m not betting; I have no idea what’s going on!
Here's JL Austin on mistakes and accidents; you might find it interesting.
I find this really interesting. Re: 'people who already knew about population ethics erred towards totalism', do you reckon this is because some many respondents from the ~EA sphere? Would we expect totalism to be the most popular view among academic philosophers who are familiar with population ethics?
uh oh
This is really exciting!
I was struck that Dario (1) says that recursive self-improvement has already begun, and (2) says that rogue agents could take over “the entire Internet” within six to 12 months. (This seems similar to Ajeya’s prediction that agents could establish a more permanent rogue deployment inside an AGI company within six months).
This is interesting and bleak. Thanks Pablo.
Jacob, together with Samara Mendez, previously wrote a shallow review about butter and margarine price substitution. They found that some studies, surprisingly, show them to be complementary goods, and thought this was primarily due to weird consumer behaviour not always reflecting econ 101, and secondarily due to econ methodologies always not capturing reality.