Because this paradigm is more compute intensive to run on the margin, it may be more difficult to run many iterations side-by-side. This means rather than having the equivalent of millions of top tier R&D researchers working at the same time we may have tens or hundreds of thousands, this could slow takeoff speed somewhat.
A quick nit pick, inference-time compute does not imply slower take off times, but rather more gradual take off times. This results in higher levels of capabilities relative to the counterfactual world with no inference-time compute because we can now leverage levels of useful intelligence which would have otherwise been unattainable earlier in our timelines.
Hey Calvin, thanks so much for posting this. I found these notes useful, particularly going back and pulling some of the main ideas from The Precipice.
I was wondering if you would share what your note taking style is? Do you have your laptop next to you as you read and just take down notes when you find something interesting? Do you read first and then synthesize later? I have been attempting to work on a note taking system for my entertaining reads, but haven't quite been able to find one that balances out.
A quick nit pick, inference-time compute does not imply slower take off times, but rather more gradual take off times. This results in higher levels of capabilities relative to the counterfactual world with no inference-time compute because we can now leverage levels of useful intelligence which would have otherwise been unattainable earlier in our timelines.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AiaAq5XeECg7MpTL7/for-every-choice-of-agi-difficulty-conditioning-on-gradual
Hey Calvin, thanks so much for posting this. I found these notes useful, particularly going back and pulling some of the main ideas from The Precipice.
I was wondering if you would share what your note taking style is? Do you have your laptop next to you as you read and just take down notes when you find something interesting? Do you read first and then synthesize later? I have been attempting to work on a note taking system for my entertaining reads, but haven't quite been able to find one that balances out.