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Topic contributions

There is high-quality evidence supporting some of these orgs, but for the think-tank types, giving to them would be part of a more hits-based giving approach. 

Also, I think many people would say that economic development in LMICs in particular is neglected and underfunded. Stefan Dercon's work (ex-chief economist of Britain's aid agency and development economics professor) challenged my previous assumption that LMIC governments are already optimising for broad-based economic growth.

This can still be a counterfactual decrease in meat sales right?

Great question which merits more discussion. I'm sure there is an interesting argument to be made about how we should settle for "good enough" if it helps us avoid extinction risks.

Your first comment claims that the 120 fold difference in population makes Israel's enemies more influential than its allies at the UN (which I disagree with), which is different to claiming that the disproportionate populations have "some" effect over the UN (which I agree with).

Religions are not represented at the UN, countries are, and the major forces influencing the UN in favour of Israel are the US and the UK, which are mostly not made up of Jews, and the main force influencing the UN against Israel is China, which is largely not made up of Muslims. 

In other words, power struggles at the UN on Israel-Palestine are not really a power struggle between Jews and Muslims, and like lots of other geopolitics things are more of a power struggle between the USA and China.

I think I generally agree with the idea that "making altruism a habit will probably increase your net impact", and thinking of altruistic effort as a finite resource to spend is inaccurate.

However I think there are is a force, "moral licensing" (https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0146167215572134) pushing in the opposite direction of habit formation.

My personal recommendation is that people should make altruism a habit where it does not feel like a large personal sacrifice. For almost all this will include generally acting morally under virtue ethics and deontology too, and include things like donating blood and being an organ donor. But depending on the person this can still include donating 10%, going vegan or at least reducing meat consumption etc.

If someone has time, I’d love to see a more comprehensive version of this post, even with quick bullet points!

Thanks for your comment!

I think a sufficiently intelligent ASI is equally likely to outsmart human goal-directedness efforts as it is to outsmart guardrails.

I think number 2 is a good point.

There are many people who actively want to create an aligned ASI as soon as possible to reap its benefits, for whom my suggestion is not useful.

But there are others who primarily want to prevent the creation of a misaligned ASI, and are willing to forgo the creation of an ASI if necessary.

There are also others who want to create an aligned ASI, but are willing to considerably delay this to improve the chances that the ASI is aligned.

I think my suggestion is mainly useful for these second and third groups.

I don't think adoption by LMIC governments removes the desirable wealth transfer to LMICs. I think most of the wealth transfers to LMICs will continue via other NGOs. 

CGD have some interesting work making the case that governments should focus on prioritising the most cost-effective health services, and donors, whose funding is less reliable should focus on additional, less cost-effective stuff - https://www.cgdev.org/blog/putting-aid-its-place-new-compact-financing-health-services

Great post! 

My recommendation to policy people, having worked in policy, is where possible, name things (initiatives, policies, bills, organisations). It makes it much easier to evaluate your impact in the future, if something does get set up and it has the name that you gave it!

Do you think there's an opportunity for LLMs to enable a lot of translation of primary school books into local languages / help develop lesson plans? Is there a charity idea here?

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