Hauke Hillebrandt

CEO @ hauke.substack.com
3428 karmaJoined Dec 2014Working (6-15 years)London, UK


Follow me on hauke.substack.com 

I'm an independent researcher working on EA topics (Global Priorities Research, Longtermism, Global Catastrophic Risks, and Economics).

How others can help me

Looking for collaborators, hires, job offers, or grant funding.

How I can help others

I can give advice and offer research collaborations.

My current research projects.


AI Competition


Global development EAs were very much looking into vaccines around 2015 and then and now it seemed that the malaria vaccine is just not crazy cost-effective, because you have to administer it more than once and it's not 100% effective - see

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

Modelling the relative cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine compared to investment in vector control or chemoprophylaxis 

Relatedly: "without the gains of stocks that are possible AI winners, the S&P 500 would now be down 2 per cent this year, rather than up 8 per cent." https://archive.ph/KFMJU

This might suggest that the gains from AI might be distributed more evenly amongst different Big Tech companies and that economies of scope are more important than relatively small technical leads.

Private R&D cannot be protected perfectly because patents expire or industry know-how diffuses to other firms and not all rents from investments can be captured. There was a leaked memo out of Google recently that said that Open source foundation models are very good and don't need much compute to run. Recently, OpenAI's CEO Altman has often highlighted that their models are not based on any one fundamental technical breakthrough, but thousands of little hacks from tinkering- but perhaps this is wrong and a strategic statement to boost the valuation of the company. 

Iirc PayPal giving pool eats the credit card fees

Mergers and Acquisitions seems underexplored in EA.

Very useful overview- thanks for writing this!

Stop free-riding! voting on new content is a public good, Misha ;P

Daniel's Heavy Tail Hypothesis (HTH) vs. this recent comment from Brian saying that he thinks that classic piece on 'Why Charities Usually Don't Differ Astronomically in Expected Cost-Effectiveness' is still essentially valid.

Seems like Brian is arguing that there are at most 3-4 OOM differences between interventions whereas Daniel seems to imply there could be 8-10 OOM differences?

Similarly here: Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers - EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org)

And Ben Todd just tweeted about this as well.

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