Sounds like a very interesting and important question! One suggestion: why don't you change the question to "If AGI goes well for humans, what is your likelihood that it will also go well for animals?". I think this is an easier question to evaluate then assigning a likelihood to a likelihood. Like if I think there's an 85% chance of AGI going well for animals, I'm sort of unclear what number I should give for the original question.
Sounds like a very interesting and important question! One suggestion: why don't you change the question to "If AGI goes well for humans, what is your likelihood that it will also go well for animals?". I think this is an easier question to evaluate then assigning a likelihood to a likelihood. Like if I think there's an 85% chance of AGI going well for animals, I'm sort of unclear what number I should give for the original question.