Data Analyst @ Epoch AI
578 karmaJoined Working (6-15 years)Brooklyn, NY, USA


Toby Ord's existential risk estimates in The Precipice were for risk this century (by 2100) IIRC. That book was very influential in x-risk circles around the time it came out, so I have a vague sense that people were accepting his framing and giving their own numbers, though I'm not sure quite how common that was. But these days most people talking about p(doom) probably haven't read The Precipice, given how mainstream that phrase has become.

Also, in some classic hard-takeoff + decisive-strategic-advantage scenarios, p(doom) in the few years after AGI would be close to p(doom) in general, so these distinctions don't matter that much. But nowadays I think people are worried about a much greater diversity of threat models.

Answer by JoshYou10

I'm probably "on the clock" about 45 hours per week - I try to do about 8 hours a day but I go over more often than not. But maybe only about 25-35 hours of that is focused work, using a relatively loose sense of "focused" (not doing something blatantly non-work, like reading Twitter or walking around outside). I think my work output is constrained by energy levels, not clock time, so I don't really worry about working longer hours or trying to stay more focused, but I do try to optimize work tasks and non-work errands to reduce their mental burdens.

Thanks for writing this, I think it's important that people at least understand the basics. EA blogs used to contain much more personal finance advice. In the past I've wondered whether EAs who joined more recently were less likely to know about personal finance as a result.

Answer by JoshYou9

I think the benefits of living in a hub city (SF, NYC, Boston, or DC) are very large and are well worth the higher costs, assuming it's financially feasible at all, especially if you currently have no personal network in any city. You'll have easy access to interesting and like-minded people, which will have many many diffuse impact and personal benefits.

Also, those are probably the only American cities besides maybe Chicago and Philly where's it is easy to live without a car (and arguably it's only NYC). 

I loved this Wikitravel article about American culture for this same reason.

Answer by JoshYou1

What makes someone good at AI safety work? How does he get feedback on whether his work is useful, makes sense, etc?

For the big-buck EtGers, what sort of donation percentages is this advice assuming? I imagine that if you're making $1M and even considering direct work then you're giving >>10% (>50%?) but I'm not sure.

I also actually have no idea how people do this, curious to see answers!

Also, the questions seem to assume that grantees don't have another (permanent, if not full-time) job. I'm not sure how common that is.

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