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Even if you think (eg) abortion access is bad on the margin

If you believe this, doesn't it flip the sign of the "very best interventions" (ie you would believe they are exceptionally bad interventions)?

17.4% of the citizen voting age population of OR-6 is Hispanic


So now that it's over, can someone explain what the heck was up with SBF donating $6m to HMP in exchange for a $1m donation to Flynn? From an outside perspective it seems tailor made to look vaguely suspicious and generate bad press, without seeming to produce any tangible benefits for Flynn or EA. 

It seems like these observations could be equally explained by Paul correctly having high credence in long timelines, and giving advice that is appropriate in worlds where long timelines are true, without explicitly trying to persuade people of his views on timelines. Given that, I'm not sure there's any strong evidence that this is good advice to keep in mind when you actually do have short timelines, regardless of your views on the Bible.

I'd be interested in joining the Slack group

I'd like to take Buck's side of the bet as well if you're willing to bet more

What was her rationale for prioritizing hand soap over food?

It's probably the lizardman constant showing up again -- if ~5% of people answer randomly and <5% of the population are actually veg*ns, then many of the self-reported veg*ns will have been people who answered randomly.

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