Director @ Center for Effective Aid Policy
4360 karmaJoined Jul


I think this leaves out what is perhaps the most important step in making a quality forecast, which is to consider the baserates!

Signal boosting my twitter poll, which I am very curious to have answered:

Basically the question I'm trying to get at is whether having hands-on experience training LLMs (proxy for technical expertise) makes you more or less likely to take existential risks from AI seriously.

and even if they were solvent at the time, that does not mean they were not fraudulent.

If I took all my customers money, which I had promised to safekeep, and went to the nearest casino and put it all on red, even if I won it would still be fraud.

In conclusion, I think that rather than being overly focused on finding the most effective means of doing good, we should also be concerned with becoming more altruistic, caring and compassionate.


I strongly agree with the last half of this sentence. A rocket engine is only valuable insofar as it is pointed in the right direction. Similarly to how it makes sense to practice using spreadsheets to systematize ones decision-making, I think it make sense to think about ways to become more compassionate and kind.

We do not know how to make a PAI which does not kill literally everyone.


We don't know how to make a PAI that does kill literally everyone either. What would the world have to look like for you to be pro more AI research and development?

Just did it, still works. You can donate to what looks like any registered US charity, so plenty of highly effective options whether you care about poverty or animal welfare.

There's a few I know of:

  • For the new R21 vaccine, WHO is currently conducting prequalification of the production facilities. As far as I understand, African governments have to wait for prequalification to finish for before they can apply for subsidized procurement and rollout through UNICEF and GAVI.
  • For both RTS,S and R21, there are some logistical difficulties due to the vaccines' 4 dose schedule (First three 1 month apart - doesn't fit all too well into existing vaccination schedules) cold-chain requirements, and timing peak immunity with the seasonality of malaria.
  • Lastly since there already exists cost-effective counter-measures, it's unclear how to balance new vaccine efforts against existing measures.

Ah, today I learned! thanks for correcting that. For what it's worth I was vegan for two years, and have been vegetarian for 6.

Do you happen to know about the bioavailability claims of animal versus plant protein?

They literally don't. Animal proteins contain every essential amino acid, whereas any plant protein will only have a subset.

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