Thanks for this analysis. I continue to be impressed with the advancements the industry has been making, which in the last five or so years in particular have been far beyond what I had expected. Nevertheless, I haven't fully moved out of the skeptic camp for two reasons. One reason, regarding the hazards of extrapolating curves, has been discussed in some other comments.

The other reason is that, despite some attempts to make it rigorous, I still find the term "artificial general intelligence" to be vague, and I expect it to continue to be subject to a moving goalposts problem. There was a time when researchers reasoned that, since chess is a pinnacle of human cognition, AGI would be inherent in a system that can play chess better than any person. This view was revealed to be obviously false after Deep Blue in 1997.

I think a bold prognostication about the development of AI would be on firmer grounds if we avoided anthropomorphisms such as "human level".

Good morning / afternoon / evening / night. I'm Michael. I currently work as a fab tech at a semiconductor fab, I am a researcher with a small environmental policy consultancy Urban Cruise Ship, and I conduct a Living Literature Review through Coefficient Giving, Scaling in Human Societies. I also maintain a mostly biweekly blog on mostly environmentalism and urbanism.

For a long time I've watched goings-on in EA as a mildly interested distant observer, but now I am trying to learn much more and get more involved.

A bit tangential to the main thrust of this post, but I have been wondering lately about some the regulatory aspects around prediction markets. Recently there was the scandal of a soldier who allegedly made $400,000 from insider information about the Maduro raid. There is particular interest in the US on banning sports betting, which is seen (accurately) as another form of gambling. Minnesota might ban prediction markets entirely.

Stepping back from the merits of this specific proposal, I see it as a part of a troubling broader anti-innovation trend. We have also seen various political factions (usually the same factions) find nothing but negativity in data centers, human spaceflight, and cryptocurrency and pursue whatever legislative avenues they can to restrict these things. At some point, a person has to identify the pattern.

As a "layperson" (I don't put my own money into prediction markets, nor is my research specifically related to them), I do find prediction markets to be a helpful source of information in the way that commodity futures are a helpful source of information. But I dislike having to sift through a bunch of predictions on sports matches and short-term crypto movements. That, and my libertarian-ish fears about the heavy hand of government, make me reluctant to throw the baby out with the bathwater.