Philosophy, global priorities and animal welfare research. My current specific interests include: philosophy of mind, moral weights, person-affecting views, preference-based views and subjectivism, moral uncertainty, decision theory, deep uncertainty/cluelessness and backfire risks, s-risks, and indirect effects on wild animals.
I've also done economic modelling for some animal welfare issues.
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Even just the effects on wild insects could be important, so anyone who is interested in insect welfare should be interested in these effects, too, or have good reason to ignore them, which I'd be interested in knowing (and possibly challenging).
I'd also tentatively put mites, springtails and farmed insect larvae at similar welfare ranges and probabilities of sentience, although quite uncertain. So, if you count farmed insect larvae as worthy of moral consideration at all, you should probably count mites and springtails, too, and to similar degrees on welfarist grounds.
I think some potentially good reasons to ignore the effects on wild terrestrial invertebrates are the following:
7% for crops for direct human consumption, 1% for urban and built-up land, including settlements and infrastructure, and 12-13% for logging for wood. I expect almost all of the rest of habitable land to be left alone, some possibly abandoned and allowed to rewild.
If we're talking about an increasing demand shift for sardines and anchovies from people who would otherwise abstain from eating fish, this would increase the price of fishmeal and make farmed insects look relatively more attractive as a potential feed for farmed fish, especially salmon. So, this could increase insect farming, too.
On the other hand, shifting people from eating farmed fish to eating sardines and anchovies could reduce both fish farming and insect farming (as well as crop agriculture for feed, but I'm not sure whether that's good or bad).
Under 4, we should consider possibilities of massive wealth gains from automation, and that the cage-free shift would have happened anyway or at much lower (relative) cost without our work before the AI transition and paradigm shift. People still want to eat eggs out of habit, food neophobia or for cultural or political or any other reasons. However, consumers become so wealthy that the difference in cost between caged and cage-free is no longer significant to them, and they would just pay it, or are much more open to cage-free (and other high welfare) legislation..
Or, maybe some animal advocates (who invested in AI or even the market broadly) become so wealthy that they could subsidize people or farms to switch to cage-free. If this is "our money", then this looks more like investing to give and just optimal donation timing. If this is not "our money", say, because we're not coordinating that closely with these advocates and have little influence on their choices, then it looks like someone else solving the problem later.
In case anyone is interested, I also have:
I'd argue that cheaper higher animal welfare and alternative proteins in X years suggest that interventions will be more cost-effective in X years, which might imply that we should "save and invest" (either literally, in capital, or conceptually, in movement capacity). Do you have any thoughts on that?
I agree they could be cheaper (in relative terms), but also possibly far more likely to happen without us saving and investing more on the margin. It's probably worth ensuring a decent sum of money is saved and invested for this possibility, though.
Your 4 priorities seem reasonable to me. I might aim 2, 3 and 4 primarily at potentially extremely high payoff interventions, e.g. s-risks. They should beat 1 in expectation, and we should have plausible models for how they could.
It seems likely to me that donation opportunities will become less cost-effective over time, as problems become increasingly solved by economic growth and other agents. For example, the poorest people in the future will be wealthier and better off than the poorest people today. And animal welfare in the future will be better than today (although things could get worse before they get better, especially for farmed insects).
For several years, I've been vegan basically other than bivalves, but I started taking actual fish oil supplements (anchovy-based) a few months ago.[1] I started taking actual fish oil, because:
I just got Perplexity to do some related "Deep Research" here. Its answer to the first prompt suggests competition isn't much of a concern, while its answer to the second suggests that >50% EPA omega-3 supplements tend to be better for brain function than >50% DHA omega-3 supplements, but it depends on the brain functions you're most interested in; higher DHA is recommended for memory and cognitive aging. Also, the usual warning about LLMs hallucinating or otherwise not being accurate.
I take 4 of these per day, for 1600 mg of EPA and 800mg of DHA per day.
Firth et al., 2019, figure 2 suggests >50% EPA supplements are effective in treating depression, and there's not enough evidence to suggest >50% DHA supplements are effective in treating depression, despite multiple studies with many participants in total. However, I didn't check doses.
From the Wikipedia page on EPA: