I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:
Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.
I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:
But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.
My career has been as follows:
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I like how comprehensive this is.
Thanks. In some ways it's pretty casual; you could easily imagine a version with 10x or 100x more effort.
Minor, but existential risk includes more than extinction. So it could be "humans haven't undergone an unrecoverable collapse yet (or some other way of losing future potential)."
Agree!
Here are some caveats/counterpoints:
The EA forum has tags. The one for criticisms of effective altruism is here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/criticism-of-effective-altruism
Beyond that, here are some criticisms I've heard or made. Hope it helps:
Preliminaries:
Criticism outlines:
Finally, for global health, something which keeps me up at night is the possiblity that subsaharan Africa is trapped in a malthusian equilibrium, where further aid only increases the population which increases suffering.
The previous version of this post had a comment from Julia Wise outlining some of her past mistakes, as well as a reply from Alexey Guzey (now deleted, but you can see some of the same contents below the table of contents here). You can also see comments from Julia here and here reflecting on her handling of complaints against Owen Cotton-Baratt. I think these are all informative in terms of predicting that sometimes the people pointed at in this post can fail as well.
Small scale (1-10k) epistemic infrastructure or experiments, like adj.news