easier to start and resolve markets, leading to many more markets

leads to lower signal-to-noise ratio

and heeding time-value still leads to more (play) capital / pricing power

long term market issues [...] conditional markets

Conditional markets compound long term issues (assuming they're collateralized): instead of locking capital into a market, that's locking capital into hoping there's a market

Prediction markets can increase capital efficiency by:
* pegging interest rates (like adjustable-rate mortgages)
* recognizing hedged positions[1][2]

More reasons for cautious interpretations:

Manifold:
* 'mana is purely a play-money and not exchangeable for sweepcash, money, or any other goods and items'
Polymarket:
* orderbook's actually 2.5% which the interface rounds up to 3%
* Polymarket offers 4% variable interest on that (Kalshi went from 4.05% to 3.75% this year)
Metaculus:
* 500 deaths is closer to previous US standoffs than the US Civil War
* Only question of those >3% as of writing only has 33 forecasters
* All the histograms have odd tails (somewhat dampened by Metaculus reporting medians):

Most nonprofit revenue isn't from charitable giving (think healthcare, education, etc):
https://taxfoundation.org/blog/501c3-nonprofit-revenue/
https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/search

Most American charitable giving was across hundreds of thousands of religious organizations:
https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/magazine/less-god-less-giving/

But these organizations receive the most donations:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BpEt8DqrcAhKJbtfJ/america-s-100-charities-receiving-most-donations

I do not discuss B12
I also plan to continue my D3 supplementation
Do you think there is evidence that not taking a multivitamin-multimineral

That multivitamin-multimineral contains B12 and D3 btw

Still seems reductively worded? Serious deficiencies like B12 impair sustaining any income. I wouldn't risk cognitive health over ~$10/month

Myopic calculating based on lifespan.. vitamins like B12, creatine, and omega-3 improve mental/cognitive health, especially for vegans and vegetarians

Google Shopping, Amazon, and AliExpress do not seem to support even the most basic constraints

I agree with your frustrations around those sites, but more structured ecommerce sites seemingly exist: https://mcmaster.com. Perhaps more common/valued in B2B than B2C?

considered joining the team at Metaculus or Manifold Markets

@DPiepgrass furthering this recommendation with Kalshi/Polymarket/ForecastEx/PredictIt/etc. Real money prediction markets address your growth theory concerns

Easter (April 20th this year) is another unique opportunity:
Likely less defensiveness addressing annual egg decorating/tossing/hiding/etc. than confronting daily diets