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I'm a stock market speculator who has been involved in transhumanist and related communities for a long time. See my website at http://bayesianinvestor.com.


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the typical time from vaccine development was decades and the fastest ever time was 10 years.

Huh? It was about 6 months for the 1957 pandemic.

We shouldn't be focused too heavily on what is politically feasible this year. A fair amount of our attention should be on what to prepare in order to handle a scenario in which there's more of an expert consensus a couple of years from now.

Nanotech progress has been a good deal slower than was expected by people who were scared of it.

I have alexithymia.

Greater awareness seems desirable. But I doubt it "severely affects" 1 in 10 people. My impression is that when it's correlated with severe problems, the problems are mostly caused by something like trauma, and alexithymia is more a symptom than a cause of the severe problems.

It's not obvious that unions or workers will care as much about safety as management. See this post for some historical evidence.

6 months sounds like a guess as to how long the leading companies might be willing to comply.

The timing of the letter could be a function of when they were able to get a few big names to sign.

I don't think they got enough big names to have much effect. I hope to see a better version of this letter before too long.

Something important seems missing from this approach.

I see many hints that much of this loneliness results from trade-offs made by modern Western culture, neglecting (or repressing) tightly-knit local community ties to achieve other valuable goals.

My sources for these hints are these books:

One point from WEIRDest People is summarized here:

Neolocal residence occurs when a newly married couple establishes their home independent of both sets of relatives. While only about 5% of the world's societies follow this pattern, it is popular and common in urban North America today largely because it suits the cultural emphasis on independence.

Can Western culture give lower priority to independence while retaining most of the benefits of WEIRD culture?

Should we expect to do much about loneliness without something along those lines?

AI seems likely to have some impact on loneliness. Can we predict and speed up the good impacts?

Most Westerners underestimate the importance of avoiding loneliness. But I'm confused as to how we should do something about that.

I doubt most claims about sodium causing health problems. High sodium consumption seems quite correlated with dietary choices that have other problems, which makes studying this hard.

See Robin Hanson's comments.

I expect most experts are scared of the political difficulties. Also, many people have been slow to update on the declining costs of solar. I think there's still significant aversion to big energy-intensive projects. Still, it does seem quite possible that experts are rejecting it for good reasons, and it's just hard to find descriptions of their analysis.

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