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Rasool

1016 karmaJoined Hackney Wick, London, UK

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Not sure if you caught it but there was a detailed critique and discussion of this 90% figure on LessWrong

There's a transcript of the Ivan Gayton podcast, and other discussion, here

In March 2025, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, predicted that 90% of code would be written by AI as early as June 2025 and no later than September 2025. This turned out to be dead wrong. 

Amodei claims that 90% of code at Anthropic (and some companies they work with) is being written by AI

There are some interesting comments on LessWrong

I have been recommended the Drone Ultimatum podcast, but haven't listened to any

I am a huge Ted Chiang fan, but your review misses one of the most amazing things about his writing -- it is written in very brief and straightforward words and sentences!

A number of his short stories are available for free online, for instance Exhalation in Lightspeed magazine. Under 'Works' on his Wikipedia page, you can find others (sometimes via web archives)

A large recent RCT found that free contraception had no impact on birth rates in Burkina Faso - I wonder if/how this affects this cause area

One website, which doesn't quite match all your criteria, is https://longbets.org/bets/, which has bets from people like Warren Buffet, Scott Alexander, Ray Kurzweil, and Eric Schmidt

GiveWell's cost to save a life has gone from $4,500 to a range between $3,000 and $5,500:

https://www.givewell.org/how-much-does-it-cost-to-save-a-life

From at least as early as December 2023 (possibly as early as December 2021 when the page says it was first published) until February 2024, that page highlighted a $7.2 million 2020 grant to the Against Malaria Foundation at an estimated cost per life saved of $4,500.

The page now highlights a $6.4 million 2023 grant to the Malaria Consortium at an estimated cost per life saved of $3,000.

You can see all the estimated cost per life saved (or other relevant outcome) for all GiveWell's grants at this spreadsheet, linked-to from:

https://www.givewell.org/impact-estimates

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