My understanding is appropriate venues are hard to come by, expensive, and have to be booked nearly a year in advance, so they may not have had a choice.
You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what's your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the "smartest" (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan's frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?
My understanding is appropriate venues are hard to come by, expensive, and have to be booked nearly a year in advance, so they may not have had a choice.
Hi Joel, thanks for writing a great article!
You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what's your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the "smartest" (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan's frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?