You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what's your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the "smartest" (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan's frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?
Hi Joel, thanks for writing a great article!
You discuss how difficult it would be for China to mount a land invasion of Taiwan, what's your take on the likelihood/impact of a blockade instead? In the recent 80,000 Hours podcast with Hugh White, he predicted the "smartest" (if still grim) outcome is that China blockades Taiwan, the US sabotages Taiwan's frontier chip fabs, and then the US steps back in order to avoid a larger conflict. Does this seem plausible or do you disagree?