It’s not the case that forecasting/prediction markets are merely in their infancy.
Counterargument: the internet had its theoretical underpinnings start approximately 1959-1960, with first grants for ARPANET in 1966-1969.
The whole thing was then not very useful until the 1990's.
You could pick earlier dates for theroetical underpinnings of the internet if you wanted, too.
I think prediction markets are more similar to the internet than to cryptocurrency: they require a mix of technology and infrastructure but also a change in human habits. Theoretically, you'd always expect this type of very different systems technology to be a multi-generational thing before there's widespread societal payoffs on it.
It's not exactly a 1-for-1 comparison, but the similar date for prediction markets in a comparison to the internet is probably 1988 with the Iowa Prediction Markets. So, it's been 38 years. It seems to me that it's right on schedule to be a useful systems technology for society. We're now in the "Wild West" days of it and it's going to be messy, like when the internet was emerging into the mainstream.
I do agree about the "feels useful but isn't" criticism — I got very into finding mis-priced bets and arbitrages on PredictIt a few years back. It can be a terrible time sink due to being so interesting and intellectually engaging. And the type of person who can do a good job at this (I'm one of them, not on your level but also pretty good) — is certainly capable of doing much more high impact work with that same type of cognition.
So I agree with that criticism on an individual level, but I don't think it's right to extrapolate that to the emerging systems technology. A cautionary note that if you're a skilled forecaster it might be a dangerous time sink I'd fully agree with, but I don't think it makes sense to throw the baby out with the bathwater as to whether this will have societal-level impact over time.
Counterargument: the internet had its theoretical underpinnings start approximately 1959-1960, with first grants for ARPANET in 1966-1969.
The whole thing was then not very useful until the 1990's.
You could pick earlier dates for theroetical underpinnings of the internet if you wanted, too.
I think prediction markets are more similar to the internet than to cryptocurrency: they require a mix of technology and infrastructure but also a change in human habits. Theoretically, you'd always expect this type of very different systems technology to be a multi-generational thing before there's widespread societal payoffs on it.
It's not exactly a 1-for-1 comparison, but the similar date for prediction markets in a comparison to the internet is probably 1988 with the Iowa Prediction Markets. So, it's been 38 years. It seems to me that it's right on schedule to be a useful systems technology for society. We're now in the "Wild West" days of it and it's going to be messy, like when the internet was emerging into the mainstream.
I do agree about the "feels useful but isn't" criticism — I got very into finding mis-priced bets and arbitrages on PredictIt a few years back. It can be a terrible time sink due to being so interesting and intellectually engaging. And the type of person who can do a good job at this (I'm one of them, not on your level but also pretty good) — is certainly capable of doing much more high impact work with that same type of cognition.
So I agree with that criticism on an individual level, but I don't think it's right to extrapolate that to the emerging systems technology. A cautionary note that if you're a skilled forecaster it might be a dangerous time sink I'd fully agree with, but I don't think it makes sense to throw the baby out with the bathwater as to whether this will have societal-level impact over time.