Technoliberal
Posts 2
Comments5
That's fair, but I imagine X risks and S risks are very heavily correlated. Especially in regards to "speed of progress", accelerationism will, in my view, obviously increase X risks (safety research takes time, the more time you have, the more time for research you have, the more research is done, therefore reducing risk) but also increase S risks (this is more personal opinion, but I don't think the current leaders of AI innovation have stuff like animal welfare in mind. if we just keep chugging along, the first ASI might not care about animals at all).
Wrote a post about it, but the TL;DR is that extintion is THE worst case scenario. It is the end of all utility and completely irreversible, whereas progress can always be made at a later date.
I wanted to make this poll to see how the community views the speed/x-risk tradeoff. I'm personally 99% x-risk and 1% speed, so I would hard agree. My prediction is most people will agree, maybe a 70/30 split, but I'm curious to see.
If I had to be more specific I would mean "reducing the probability of all humanity (and only humanity) dying in a few short days/weeks from 50% to 10%" by "significantly reduce existential risk".
Also, I disagree with your methods. X risks aren't especially bad because of all the utility lost (and "negative utility" created), they're bad because after they happen there's never any utility again. Unless apes re-evolve into humans and reestablish all of civilization all over again, but we're getting too hypothetical. What's 100, or even 1000 years of death and suffering compared to 10000 of utopia? If stalling/slowing down technological progress for 1000 years made the P(Doom) go from 50% to 1%, I would definitely take it. Unless of course you think utopia is gonna be some short lived thing, but I seriously doubt that.