Thanks for setting this up, Elika! I think it's a great idea. Other than being a place for bioethics-relevant posts, I wonder if this forum could be used to help us scope out how bioethicists are connected up to EA and vice versa? I for one have struggled to get a handle on where most EAs interested in bioethics are based (what kinds of institutions/groups) and how they get together, and the same for bioethicists interested in EA (other than uni EA groups).

Hi, Anjay! I think this page might be of use to you, regarding the history of bioethics. When you say you're after papers on the impact of bioethics on research, do you mean scientific research, or what kinds of bioethics research are out there, or on how research is conducted through, eg. policy guidance?

Hi James,

Thanks for your comment!

Your estimates sound right to me, based on the numbers you’ve used. I agree with you that it’s best to calculate based on those numbers, but I think it’s worth investigating further whether they’re on the conservative side or not.

I have the start to some thinking on that, based on the following.

First, most of the deaths from AMR do not occur in Europe, North America, and Australia (which the OECD report was focussed on). Rather, they occur in LMICs. I noted in the piece, “Looking to the near-term future, the rate of AMR is forecast to increase by 4-7 times more in LMICs than in OECD countries between 2018-2030.[xxiv]” That might be relevant to our estimates for how cost-effective intervening in AMR is, because it may be that more localised interventions are possible in LMICs, at least for some resistant pathogens. It may, then, be cheaper and still effective to intervene more locally.

Second, as the World Bank report [xlvi] noted, AMR containment measures would cost around 9 billion annually in LMICs. If you base your calculations on that figure instead, extrapolated out worldwide, the cost-effectiveness estimates don’t change too much, so it seems we don’t get over-conservative estimates from using figures for interventions in Europe, North America and Australia.

Third, one aspect that does make your estimate relatively conservative is the use of the 2019 figures. That’s the most recent data we have but recall that by 2050 we could see up to 10 million deaths per year caused by AMR. [iv]

Overall, I’m not sure what the implications are for your estimates, but just some points to bear in mind.

Thanks again for the comment!