That is why we can target Andromeda - the distance is good enough so they didn't arrive yet and we can focus on many stars simultaneously and hope that aliens have very large receivers - maybe Dyson sphere-size. Also the main point is to affect local superintelliegce expected utility.
The main point you miss is that the main goal of all this is to get a better negotiation position on Earth with our own superintelligence (and there are high chances that it will be soon and misaligned)- which at early stages will also very uncertain about aliens detraction in the universe. It is like crying into an open window - "a guy, Jack, is in my room and is going to kill me!" You don't know if there is police outside - but you hope to affect Jack's calculus.
After it crosses Saturn orbit, it will take 5.25 years to get to the Sun. Unlikely it will be observed before crossing Saturn orbit as there is no constant monitoring there and it is very dim there.
I am working on sideloding – creating mind models via LLM - which allows performing different experiments including the ones about the ethics of uploading. Will it be interested to you? More: https://github.com/avturchin/minduploading/
One thing about DA is that I have to know that I am selected randmoly from the group of observers. A first AI will know that it is the first, so there is no randomness.
If there are many AIs, then there is no singleton and opinion of each is not important.
Also I think that DA and anthropics is solvable and the most of assumptions are true but in slightly different situations: they answer different questions.
However, such full anthropic solution require a lot of cognitive work to map full anthropic landscape. An AI may use some conservative approach before it is solved adding weights to different solutions.
Of course, I meant not Bronze age collapse, but known plethora of existential risks. But your argument that others will outcompete us is valid - unless the totality of x-risks is a universal Great Filter.
Universe will choose the simplest way to stop time travel. It doesn't care is it the destruction of a civilization or some mysterious way to prevent changes in the past. Moreover, as civilizations naturally have a tendency to fall and this prevents all time machines, then civilization destruction is easier way to prevent time travel.
If a non-cancel principle is false, then causality should move along a timeline twice. First normally, and second time - when the time line is canceled. The interesting question arises: can the canceling wave reach the normal wave and if yes, when? (the answer must be "yes" because if it never reaches the now moment, the canceling never happens). For example, if cancel wave has finite but high speed, it will reach us just before we were going to start the time machine.
From anthropic considerations, we can say that we will take this precommitment and will follow it.
Let's assume that time travel becomes possible when an advance civilization reach a rotating black hole, as it follows from general relativity.
However, non-cancel principle is valid and can't be fulfilled by new timeline creation. (That is, equal to Novikov's principle).
In that case, the only way to prevent timeline collapse is to prevent civilizations to achieve blackholes!
In that case, the universe should be organized in the way which prevents large scale civilizations and space travel. This solves Fermi paradox and really terrifying to us.
However, if we precomit never come close to black holes, we can escape the "curse"!
Digital recreation of Igor: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JLHxnWxXk4zYwFcHs/recreation-of-ea-pioneer-igor-kiriluk
That is why we can target Andromeda - the distance is good enough so they didn't arrive yet and we can focus on many stars simultaneously and hope that aliens have very large receivers - maybe Dyson sphere-size. Also the main point is to affect local superintelliegce expected utility.
The main point you miss is that the main goal of all this is to get a better negotiation position on Earth with our own superintelligence (and there are high chances that it will be soon and misaligned)- which at early stages will also very uncertain about aliens detraction in the universe. It is like crying into an open window - "a guy, Jack, is in my room and is going to kill me!" You don't know if there is police outside - but you hope to affect Jack's calculus.
Between 1 and 10 years - likely 3
After it crosses Saturn orbit, it will take 5.25 years to get to the Sun. Unlikely it will be observed before crossing Saturn orbit as there is no constant monitoring there and it is very dim there.
I am working on sideloding – creating mind models via LLM - which allows performing different experiments including the ones about the ethics of uploading. Will it be interested to you? More: https://github.com/avturchin/minduploading/
if it is first and knows that it will kill all others
One thing about DA is that I have to know that I am selected randmoly from the group of observers. A first AI will know that it is the first, so there is no randomness.
If there are many AIs, then there is no singleton and opinion of each is not important.
Also I think that DA and anthropics is solvable and the most of assumptions are true but in slightly different situations: they answer different questions.
However, such full anthropic solution require a lot of cognitive work to map full anthropic landscape. An AI may use some conservative approach before it is solved adding weights to different solutions.
Of course, I meant not Bronze age collapse, but known plethora of existential risks. But your argument that others will outcompete us is valid - unless the totality of x-risks is a universal Great Filter.
Universe will choose the simplest way to stop time travel. It doesn't care is it the destruction of a civilization or some mysterious way to prevent changes in the past. Moreover, as civilizations naturally have a tendency to fall and this prevents all time machines, then civilization destruction is easier way to prevent time travel.
If a non-cancel principle is false, then causality should move along a timeline twice. First normally, and second time - when the time line is canceled. The interesting question arises: can the canceling wave reach the normal wave and if yes, when? (the answer must be "yes" because if it never reaches the now moment, the canceling never happens). For example, if cancel wave has finite but high speed, it will reach us just before we were going to start the time machine.
From anthropic considerations, we can say that we will take this precommitment and will follow it.
Let's assume that time travel becomes possible when an advance civilization reach a rotating black hole, as it follows from general relativity.
However, non-cancel principle is valid and can't be fulfilled by new timeline creation. (That is, equal to Novikov's principle).
In that case, the only way to prevent timeline collapse is to prevent civilizations to achieve blackholes!
In that case, the universe should be organized in the way which prevents large scale civilizations and space travel. This solves Fermi paradox and really terrifying to us.
However, if we precomit never come close to black holes, we can escape the "curse"!