1
Many readers will be familiar with Peter Singer’s Drowning Child experiment:
On your way to work, you pass a small pond. On hot days, children sometimes play in the pond, which is only about knee-deep. The weather’s cool today, though, and the hour is early, so you are surprised to see a child splashing about in the pond.
As you get closer, you see that it is a very young child, just a toddler, who is flailing about, unable to stay upright or walk out of the pond. You look for the parents or babysitter, but there is no one else around.
The child is unable to keep her head above the water for more than a few seconds at a time. If you don’t wade in and pull her out, she seems likely to drown. Wading in is easy and safe, but you will ruin the new shoes you bought only a few days ago, and get your suit wet and muddy. By the time you hand the child over to someone responsible for her, and change your clothes, you’ll be late for work.
What should you do?
Olivia recently thought of a new version of the thought experiment.
As you get closer, you see that it is a very young child, just a toddler, who is flailing about, unable to stay upright or walk out of the pond. You look for the parents or babysitter, and they are around. There are also many lifeguards around.
At first, you breathe a sigh of relief. But then, you notice something strange: no one is moving. The child continues to drown.
The qualified experts don’t even seem to be noticing. You try to grab their attention—you scream at the lifeguards. But they don’t move.
You’ve never pulled a child out of the water. You’re not even sure you could save the child. Surely, this should be the responsibility of someone more capable than you.
But the lifeguards remain still.
What should you do?
2
People often ask us for advice as they consider next steps in their careers. Sometimes, we suggest ambitious things that go beyond someone’s default action space.
For example, we might ask Alice, a college junior, if she has considered trying to solve the alignment problem from first principles, found a new organization in an area unrelated to her major, or do community-building in a part of the world that she hasn’t visited.
Alice responds, Wait, why would I do that? There must be people way more qualified than me—isn’t this their responsibility?
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The issue is not that Alice has decided against any of these options. Any of these options might be an awful fit. The issue is that she doesn’t seriously consider them. The issue is she has not given herself permission to seriously evaluate them. She assumes that someone else more qualified than her is going to do it.
In EA, that’s often just not the case. It’s good to check, of course. Sometimes, there are competent teams who are taking care of things.
But sometimes, there is not an imaginary team with years of experience that is coming to save us. There is just us. We either build the refuges, or they don’t get built. We either figure out how to align the AI, or we don’t.
Sometimes, there is no plan that works. Sometimes, there is no standard job or internship that you can slot into to ensure a bright future.
3
Before jumping into the pond, you should be mindful of some caveats.
Sometimes, there are competent lifeguards. There are people more capable than you who will do the job.
Sometimes, there is a good reason why the lifeguards aren’t intervening. Maybe the child isn’t actually drowning. Or maybe jumping into the pond would make the child drown faster.
Sometimes, jumping in means other lifeguards are less likely to dive in. They might assume that you have the situation under control. They might not want to step on your toes.
Try to notice these situations. Be mindful of alternative hypotheses for why no one seems to be jumping in. And be on the lookout for ways to mitigate the downsides.
But sometimes, the child is drowning, and the lifeguards aren’t going to save them.
Either you will save them, or they will drown.
This is a great story! Good motivational content.
But I do think, in general, a mindset of "only I can do this" is innacurate and has costs. There are plenty of other people in the world, and other communities in the world, attempting to do good, and often succeeding. I think EAs have been a small fraction of the success in reducing global poverty over the last few decades, for example.
Here are a few plausible costs to me:
Knowing when and why others will do things significantly changes estimates of the marginal value of acting. For example, if you are starting a new project, it's reasonably likely that even if you have a completely new idea, other people will be in similar epistemic situations as you, and will soon stumble upon the same idea. So to estimate your counterfactual impact you might want to be estimating how much earlier something will occur because you made it occur, rather than purely the impact of the thing occurring. More generally, neglectedness is a key part of estimating your marginal impact - and estimating neglectedness relies heavily on an understanding of what others are focusing on, and usually at least a few people are doing things in a similar space to you.
Also, knowing when and why others will do things affects strategic considerations. The fact that in many places we now try to do good there are few non-EAs working there is a result of our attempts to find neglected areas. But - especially in the case of x-risk - we can expect others to begin to do good work in these areas as time progresses (see e.g. AI discussions around warning shots). The extent to which this is the case affects what is valuable to do now.
I really like these nuances. I think one of the problems with the drowning child parable / early EA thinking more generally was (and still is, to a large extent) very focused on the actions of the individual.
It's definitely easier and more accurate to model individual behavior, but I think we (as a community) could do more to improve our models of group behavior even though it's more difficult and costly to do so.