Recent developments in AI architecture, particularly the emergence of more modular approaches, suggest that advanced artificial superintelligence (ASI) might develop as an ecology of specialized agents rather than a monolithic entity. Several factors point toward this possibility:
- Energy efficiency advantages of modular systems, particularly relevant for space-based expansion
- The physics-imposed constraints of light-speed communication delays across solar system distances, necessitating local autonomous processing
- The need for specialized adaptation to varying material and energy constraints in different environments
- Parallels with how natural intelligence emerged through specialized, interacting systems
If ASI develops as a political ecology of agents rather than a singleton, this raises important questions about human survival prospects. How might competition, cooperation, and resource allocation between multiple ASI agents affect humanity's future? Would an ecology of agents be more or less likely to preserve human values and existence than a unified ASI? Could the presence of multiple agents create more opportunities for human-aligned outcomes, or would it increase existential risks?
Additionally, would the emergence of a meta-coordinating ASI entity—let’s call it a “systemic intelligence”—that optimizes for overall stability and the wellbeing of individual agents, shift these dynamics? How might such an entity approach the treatment of pre-singularity biological systems, including humans and the biosphere?
I'm particularly interested in hearing forum members' thoughts on:
- Whether the potential for ASI developing as an ecology of agents is compelling
- How this model might influence our approach to AI alignment
- Whether this scenario increases or decreases existential risk
- What specific mechanisms might help ensure human survival in an ASI ecology
Edit: I should point to this post which came out the same day as mine but which I'm embarrassed to say I didn't see until afterwards, and would seem to pour cold water on the apparent optimism of my own post...
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xrBiBWoxF6pc6cw86/new-report-multi-agent-risks-from-advanced-ai
For context, I'm thinking of a situation like the paradox of the plankton...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_the_plankton
"...in which a limited range of resources supports an unexpectedly wide range of plankton species, apparently flouting the competitive exclusion principle, which holds that when two species compete for the same resource, one will be driven to extinction."
Could ASI political ecology be a similar situation, with human and other biotic agents co-existing happily in a multi ASI-agent ecosystem?
Have you read Drexler's CAIS proposal?
That looks like a great resource, thanks.