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Three of the most exciting projects to come out of EA in recent years are, in a vague sense, CEA spinouts:
* Kairos is directly a spinout of CEA and now handles most support for university AI safety groups. Basically everyone I've found who knows them is really excited about what they do
* NEST is an opinionated ideas-fi...
This post presents the executive summary from Giving What We Can’s impact evaluation for 2025. At the end of this post we share links to more information, including the full report and...
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I think most frequentists would agree that Bayesian inference is more intuitive. Bayesian inference is much more computationally difficult though, and you usually get the same answer anyways. (Bayesian estimators are typically asymptotically equivalent to classical estimators!)
> and you usually get the same answer anyways
I don't agree with this! In reality we don't get asymptotic properties, we get finite sample properties, and these can vary greatly. E.g. MLE often won't even converge for hierarchical models without a fair amount of data. Also, for bespoke models there often isn't a published frequentist estimator available, and attempting to derive one would be a much bigger issue for most people than the computational resources required for MCMC or variational inference.