221Causes and Uncertainty: Rethinking Value in ExpectationBob Fischer·3y ago·18m readBob Fischer·3y ago·18m read3030
94[Link] The Optimizer's Curse & Wrong-Way ReductionsChris Smith·7y ago·1m readChris Smith·7y ago·1m read6161
86Should you go with your best guess?: Against precise Bayesianism and related viewsAnthony DiGiovanni 🔸·1y ago·27m readAnthony DiGiovanni 🔸·1y ago·27m read44
66Uncertainty over time and Bayesian updatingDavid Bernard·3y ago·34m readDavid Bernard·3y ago·34m read22
46Tyranny of the Epistemic MajorityScott Garrabrant·3y ago·11m readScott Garrabrant·3y ago·11m read22
46New Global Priorities Institute working papers - and an updated version of "The case for strong longtermism"Global Priorities Institute·5y ago·3m readGlobal Priorities Institute·5y ago·3m read
43Discussions of Longtermism should focus on the problem of UnawarenessJim Buhler·1y ago·41m readJim Buhler·1y ago·41m read11
36Global Health & Development - Beyond the StreetlightRichard Sedlmayr·4y ago·7m readRichard Sedlmayr·4y ago·7m read44
27Solutions to problems with BayesianismBob Jacobs [inactive]·2y ago·25m readBob Jacobs [inactive]·2y ago·25m read22