Hey everyone, 1st year radiology resident here! Quick intro and a tool that might be useful for anyone who wants to practice being better calibrated.

Back when I was in med school I wished there was a tool to log my diagnostic guesses (e.g., “70% this is pneumonia”), track outcomes, and actually measure whether my confidence matched reality. Nowadays there are some tools that let you do that but I believe I've made a good alternative to these, called Guessometer, that lets you:

• Log a prediction with a probability (X% confidence) and an outcome date. Mark it as "Correct" or "Incorrect" when the result becomes known.
• Once the outcome is known, the website compares your accuracy over time (actual outcome) with your overall confidence level (your initial X% confidence).
• Automatic scoring with Brier score and trend graphs so you can watch calibration improve.
• Leaderboard that ranks you based on accuracy and Brier score.
• Keep predictions private or make them public.

If you’re curious, try it out and let me know what you think, especially what would make it helpful for aspiring superforecasters. 

Sorry for the shameless plug, I'm just really excited! 

Thanks for your time!