This sequence introduces three hypotheses, starts evaluating them, their macrostrategic impact for impartial longtermists, and whether making further progress on them is tractable.
(A) The Civ-Saturation Hypothesis posits that when making decisions, we should assume most of Humanity's Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) resources will eventually be grabbed by SFCs regardless of whether Humanity's SFC exists or not.
(B) The Civ-Similarity Hypothesis posits that the expected utility efficiency of Humanity's future Space-Faring Civilization (SFC) would be similar to that of other SFCs.
(A and B) The conjunction of these hypotheses forms the Existence Neutrality Hypothesis. Which, if true, would have macrostrategic implications for the longtermist community.
The series hints at preliminary research results, produces a first evaluation of the Civ-Saturation Hypothesis, evaluates the tractability of evaluating these hypotheses, and explores which macrostrategic implications these hypotheses could have for longtermists.
Content of the series
(Introduction)
(A first pass at evaluating the Civ-Saturation Hypothesis)
(Objects-level arguments about the Civ-Similarity Hypothesis and its tractability)
(Introducing the research project & implications)