76:I[392826,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 77:I[836637,["$2","$3","$4","$5","$6","$7","$8","$9","$a","$b","$c","$d","$e","$f","$2c","$2d"],"default"] 78:T145f,

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I'm also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com / nunosempere.com/blog rather than on this forum, because:

I disagree with the EA Forum's moderation policy—they've banned a few disagreeable people whom I like, and I think they're generally a bit too censorious for my liking.
The Forum website has become more annoying to me over time: more cluttered and more pushy in terms of curated and pinned posts (I've partially mitigated this by writing my own minimalistic frontend)
The above two issues have made me take notice that the EA Forum is beyond my control, and it feels like a dumb move to host my research in a platform that has goals different from my own.

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I'm particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.

My career has been as follows:

Before Sentinel, I set up my own niche consultancy, Shapley Maximizers. This was very profitable, and I used the profits to bootstrap Sentinel. I am winding this down, but if you have need of estimation services for big decisions, you can still reach out.
I used to do research around longtermism, forecasting and quantification, as well as some programming, at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI). At QURI, I programmed Metaforecast.org, a search tool which aggregates predictions from many different platforms—a more up to date alternative might be adj.news. I spent some time in the Bahamas as part of the FTX EA Fellowship, and did a bunch of work for the FTX Foundation, which then went to waste when it evaporated.
I write a Forecasting Newsletter which gathered a few thousand subscribers; I previously abandoned but have recently restarted it. I used to really enjoy winning bets against people too confident in their beliefs, but I try to do this in structured prediction markets, because betting against normal people started to feel like taking candy from a baby.
Previously, I was a Future of Humanity Institute 2020 Summer Research Fellow, and then worked on a grant from the Long Term Future Fund to do "independent research on forecasting and optimal paths to improve the long-term."
Before that, I studied Maths and Philosophy, dropped out in exasperation at the inefficiency, picked up some development economics; helped implement the European Summer Program on Rationality during 2017, 2018 2019, 2020 and 2022; worked as a contractor for various forecasting and programming projects; volunteered for various Effective Altruism organizations, and carried out many independent research projects. In a past life, I also wrote a popular Spanish literature blog, and remain keenly interested in Spanish poetry.

You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://nunosempere.com/.newsletter/>, or subscribe to my posts' RSS here: <https://nunosempere.com/blog/index.rss>

79:T8bd,

Dr. David Denkenberger co-founded and is a director at the Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED.info) and donates half his income to it. He received his B.S. from Penn State in Engineering Science, his masters from Princeton in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and his Ph.D. from the University of Colorado at Boulder in the Building Systems Program. His dissertation was on an expanded microchannel heat exchanger, which he patented. He is an associate professor at the University of Canterbury in mechanical engineering. He received the National Merit Scholarship, the Barry Goldwater Scholarship, the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, is a Penn State distinguished alumnus, and is a registered professional engineer. He has authored or co-authored 156 publications (>5600 citations, >60,000 downloads, h-index = 38, most prolific author in the existential/global catastrophic risk field), including the book Feeding Everyone no Matter What: Managing Food Security after Global Catastrophe. His food work has been featured in over 25 countries, over 300 articles, including Science, Vox, Business Insider, Wikipedia, Deutchlandfunk (German Public Radio online), Discovery Channel Online News, Gizmodo, Phys.org, and Science Daily. He has given interviews on 80,000 Hours podcast (here and here) and Estonian Public Radio, Radio New Zealand, WGBH Radio, Boston, and WCAI Radio on Cape Cod, USA. He has given over 80 external presentations, including ones on food at Harvard University, MIT, Princeton University, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford, Cornell University, University of California Los Angeles, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Sandia National Labs, Los Alamos National Lab, Imperial College, Australian National University, and University College London.

7a:T8bd,

7b:T8bd,

7c:T8bd,

7d:T8bd,

7e:T8bd,

7f:T8bd,

80:T8bd,

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Epistemic status: Fairly uncertain. May contain errors, probabilities might not be calibrated.

Introduction

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  I'm a freelancer based in London. I offer copyediting, proofreading, substantive editing, conceptual support, review, and coaching. I've worked with many individuals and organisations in the EA and AI safety worlds. If you'd like to work with me, book a short calendly meeting or email me at ambace@gmail.com. Website with more info: https://amber-dawn-ace.com/
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  This post is part of a series of 6 interviews. As EAs, we want to use our careers or donations to do the most good - but it’s difficult to work out what exactly that looks like for us. I wanted to interview effective altruists working in different fields and on different causes and ask them how they chose their cause area, and how they relate to effective altruism and doing good more generally. During the Prague Fall Season residency, I interviewed six EAs in Prague about what they are doi..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"qKrxz729wdJK4pT5h","slug":"juangarcia","karma":1496,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Research Manager","username":"JuanGarcia","createdAt":"2018-10-28T23:27:49.89+00:00","postCount":10,"displayName":"JuanGarcia","commentCount":51,"organization":"ALLFED - Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters","biographyHtml":"
  Professional bio // Long bio
  \"The essential thing was to save the greatest possible number of persons from dying and being doomed to unending separation. And to do this there was only one resource: to fight the plague. There was nothing admirable about this attitude; it was merely logical.\" - Albert Camus, The Plague
  Altruism is the rational response to an irrational world.
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  Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"ZCihBFp5P64JCvQY6","core":true,"name":"Community","slug":"community","tagRel":{"_id":"SCJPaqrtYm2qWz8TF","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":7476,"description":"
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  Summary
  This is a case study on how The Alliance to Feed The Earth In Disasters (ALLFED) has activated its response capabilities due to the invasion of Ukraine (with its potential for global food systems risks and nuclear war).
  Additionally:
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  Related entries
  global outreach |..."},{"_id":"KdxaNG2Fwkgh4ywFm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear security","slug":"nuclear-security","tagRel":{"_id":"Zhoz3iv6Ezjo8warY","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":291,"description":"
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  Related entries
  ..."},{"_id":"xGGyQvqoisJw7hhqi","core":false,"name":"Emergency response","slug":"emergency-response","tagRel":{"_id":"idf8FJgkQ5Qo95toj","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":22,"description":"
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  Related entries
  existential risk factor | global catastrophic risk..."},{"_id":"bTuCPLohLYPAeorzD","core":false,"name":"Resilient food","slug":"resilient-food","tagRel":{"_id":"pK5rLH2jYa9rkscig","voteType":null,"baseScore":3},"postCount":79,"description":"
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  Executive Summary
  Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) celebrates its 5th anniversary this year (2017-2022).
  Being a fully remote team, we now have team members on all continents except Antarctica.^[1] By the end of the year, w..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"9TTdmC4N3iwGcCnhW","slug":"sonia_cassidy","karma":276,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Sonia_Cassidy","createdAt":"2019-10-17T01:31:05.76+00:00","postCount":2,"displayName":"Sonia_Cassidy","commentCount":7,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
  Director of Operations for The Alliance To Feed The Earth In Disasters since 2018.
  Director of Communications since 2021 (dual management position).
  Read more about me here: https://allfed.info/about/team-and-board?view=article&id=16&catid=10
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  Professional bio // Long bio
  \"The essential thing was to save the greatest possible number of persons from dying and being doomed to unending separation. And to do this there was only one resource: to fight the plague. There was nothing admirable about this attitude; it was merely logical.\" - Albert Camus, The Plague
  Altruism is the rational response to an irrational world.
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  Related entries
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  Not to be confused with EA Organization Updates, a monthly post series containing updates about organization..."},{"_id":"pmALcrKQBDgFMyqqt","core":false,"name":"Global catastrophic risk","slug":"global-catastrophic-risk","tagRel":{"_id":"yCAmnjbhqJCWqfEvv","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":301,"description":"
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  Climate change doesn't rank as a top EA cause area because it already receives substantial funding, is less neglected than other risks, and—under gradual-warming scenarios—seems unlikely to cause human extinction. I broadly agree with that assessment.
  Yet some problems under the climate umbrella do fit EA criteria of scale, neglectedness, and tractability. Climate tipping points in particular could trigger catastrophic feedback loops—mass human suffering, great-power conflict, bio..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"JL82PqCp4bKbrrQuT","core":false,"name":"Food security","slug":"food-security","tagRel":{"_id":"iSuEqrx6JQAHqMDGx","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":74,"description":"
  Food security is a measure of the degree to which individuals have access to food.
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  EC-FAO Food Security Programme (2008) An introduction to the basic concepts of food security, Food and Agriculture Organiz..."},{"_id":"Fi2msh65RjSDaEDxx","core":false,"name":"Climate change","slug":"climate-change","tagRel":{"_id":"MsphnHwaCnmniAJAh","voteType":null,"baseScore":5},"postCount":496,"description":"
  In the sense that matters most for effective altruism, climate change refers to large-scale shifts in weather patterns that result from emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane largely from fossil fuel consumption. Climate change has..."},{"_id":"hxRMaKvwGqPb43TWB","core":false,"name":"Research","slug":"research","tagRel":{"_id":"fEzmvDMtcmeXJeHKN","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2714,"description":"
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  Governments and philanthropists spend considerable resources attempting to do good in the world...."},{"_id":"y4b45yXXrFJpPmx7d","core":false,"name":"Opinion","slug":"opinion","tagRel":{"_id":"vEFkTDgsekhnkPEtg","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2156,"description":"
  Apply this topic to posts that express a personal opinion.
  
  Related entries
  
  community experiences | community
  ..."},{"_id":"bBS5GQJgFcobNBLki","core":false,"name":"Organization updates","slug":"organization-updates","tagRel":{"_id":"cR4HfevC8netWyCKT","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":1655,"description":"
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  Not to be confused with EA Organization Updates, a monthly post series containing updates about organization..."},{"_id":"bY6qtCihTzzSCw9gc","core":false,"name":"Announcements and updates","slug":"announcements-and-updates","tagRel":{"_id":"wf95tfYJqkqqopwqu","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":2521,"description":"
  This topic collects posts that make an official announcement or update: for example, a new project or organization, a competition or prize, or major organizational news.
  
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  $\"$ \nPicture adapted from the UK's 2020 National Risk Register
  \n
  Spanish version crossposted to riesgoscatastrogicosglobales.com
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  Summary
  \n
  \n
  I present two notable examples (the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the COVID-19 outbreak) of the..."},"group":null,"coauthors":null,"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"bTuCPLohLYPAeorzD","core":false,"name":"Resilient food","slug":"resilient-food","tagRel":{"_id":"6Hyn5J9yzqJqGerFz","voteType":null,"baseScore":1},"postCount":79,"description":"
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  Click here for the 2021 Highlights.
  Click here for the 2019 Highlights.
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  [Update: The recruitment round is now closed and doesn't accept anymore applications at this point. It might reopen if no suitable candidate has been identified by the end of the process.]
  The Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED)—an effective-altruism–aligned, global charity, registered in the US as a 501(c)(3) and with sister entities in the UK and Australia – is seeking its first Chief Executive Officer to guide the organization through a pivotal and..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"dNzgD8bhEs4h784u2","slug":"laura-cook","karma":309,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Director of Communications","username":"Laura Cook","createdAt":"2024-03-26T15:30:46.669+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Laura Cook","commentCount":0,"organization":"Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters","biographyHtml":"","profileImageId":"Profile/cemsdzbk8woflemoiyl4"},{"_id":"ZEoedGGdw8opoARPG","slug":"jane-redfern-1","karma":10,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Jane Redfern","createdAt":"2025-01-02T04:28:42.768+00:00","postCount":0,"displayName":"Jane Redfern","commentCount":0,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":null,"profileImageId":null},{"_id":"zz92GfoPPa7Y29k8u","slug":"denkenberger","karma":3730,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":"Director, Associate Professor","username":"Denkenberger","createdAt":"2015-04-02T17:05:10.404+00:00","postCount":853,"displayName":"Denkenberger🔸","commentCount":861,"organization":"Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), University of Canterbury","biographyHtml":"$7e","profileImageId":null}],"customHtmlHighlight":"","tags":[{"_id":"54Ls7K7N53kYws9ja","core":false,"name":"Job listing (open)","slug":"job-listing-open","tagRel":{"_id":"hnbXCPD3nvRbgytDo","voteType":null,"baseScore":2},"postCount":735,"description":"
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  Summary
  The Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) team recently connected with the EA community in London at EA Global. Thank you for your interest in and support of our work at the intersection of food systems resilience and global catastrophic risks, such as nuclear winter and tail risks from climate change.
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  Professional bio // Long bio
  \"The essential thing was to save the greatest possible number of persons from dying and being doomed to unending separation. And to do this there was only one resource: to fight the plague. There was nothing admirable about this attitude; it was merely logical.\" - Albert Camus, The Plague
  Altruism is the rational response to an irrational world.
  "},"contents":{"wordCount":6481,"htmlHighlight":"
  Executive Summary
  Welcome to ALLFED’s 2024 Highlights, our annual update on what Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters has been up to this year. From producing fifteen scientific papers on global catastrophes to forming the first blueprint for an Extreme Pandemic Resilience Plan for Vital Industry, to being featured in over 90 media articles—it’s been a busy, productive year of impact.
  There is much more we could do to help build a resilient future. Thanks to..."},"group":null,"coauthors":[{"_id":"9TTdmC4N3iwGcCnhW","slug":"sonia_cassidy","karma":276,"deleted":false,"jobTitle":null,"username":"Sonia_Cassidy","createdAt":"2019-10-17T01:31:05.76+00:00","postCount":2,"displayName":"Sonia_Cassidy","commentCount":7,"organization":null,"biographyHtml":"
  Director of Operations for The Alliance To Feed The Earth In Disasters since 2018.
  Director of Communications since 2021 (dual management position).
  Read more about me here: https://allfed.info/about/team-and-board?view=article&id=16&catid=10
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  organization updates |..."},{"_id":"GR75k85jWoQ6iEKMA","core":false,"name":"Giving Season (2024)","slug":"giving-season-2024","tagRel":{"_id":"AmKXbz7k9jNtiugkL","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":125,"description":"
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  career choice | diminishing returns |..."},{"_id":"uu4eksgjZX5Ru8XHm","core":false,"name":"Nuclear winter","slug":"nuclear-winter","tagRel":{"_id":"m6vY4S54yrBQJbCda","voteType":null,"baseScore":4},"postCount":108,"description":"
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Introduction

Further reading

Funding

History

Further reading

Further reading

History

History

Funding

History

Improving policy

Funding

History

History

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Cost of the pandemic

Terminology

External links

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Summary

Further reading

Related entries

Related entries

Related entries

Executive Summary

Related entries

Further reading

Related entries

Related entries

Further reading

Improving policy