Greg_Colbourn

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Global moratorium on AGI, now (Twitter). Founder of CEEALAR (née the EA Hotel; ceealar.org)

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Thanks for these. I'll note though that personally, I have ~0 stock market exposure (majority of my wealth is in crypto and startups).

Do you expect that between now and TAI that would kill everyone, AI stocks won't outperform?

No, I expect they will, but it might be only a matter of months before doom in those cases (i.e. AI capabilities continue to advance at a rapid pace, AI capable of automating most work tasks happens, stocks skyrocket; but AI is also turned on AI development, and recursive-self improvement kicks in, doom follows shortly after).

If you find some edge, let us know!

Are you in the HSEACA fb group? Here's a tip[1]: the relatively new crypto, WART. Heuristics: recommended by same guy that picked the 1000x (KASPA) and 200x (CLORE); geniuinely new algo (CPU/GPU combined mining; working on an in-browser node); fair launch and tokenomics (no premine); enthusiastic developers who are crypto enthusiasts doing it for fun (currently worth very little); enthusiastic community; bad at marketing (this is an advantage at this stage; more focus on product). Given it has only a ~$1.5M marketcap now, there is a lot of potential upside. I'd say >10% chance of >100x; 1000x not out of the question. Timeframe: 6-18 months.

Another: Equator Therapeutics[2].

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    Usual caveats apply to these: not investment advice, do your own research, don't put in more than you can afford to lose (significant chance they go to ~0), don't blame me for any losses, etc.

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    Join the group to see more.

I would encourage EAs to go even further against the EMH than buying AI stocks. EAs have been ahead of the curve on lots of things, so we should be able to make even better returns elsewhere, especially given how crowded AI is now. It's worth looking at the track record of the HSEACA investing group[1], but, briefly, I have had 2 cryptos that I learnt about in there in the last couple of years go up 1000x and 200x respectively (realising 100x and 50x gains respectively, so far in the case of the second). Lots of people also made big money shorting stock markets before the Covid crash, and there have been various other highly profitable plays, and promising non-AI start-ups posted about. There are plenty of other opportunities out there that are better than investing in AI, even from a purely financial perspective. More EAs should be spending time seeking them out, rather than investing in ethically questionable companies that go against their mission to prevent x-risk, and are very unlikely to provide significant profits that are actually usable before the companies they come from cause doom, or collapse in value from being regulated to prevent doom.

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    Would actually be great if someone did an analysis of this sometime!

unless your p(doom) is very high

It is! In fact, I think non-doom TAI worlds are highly speculative[1].

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    I've still not seen any good argument for them making up a majority of the probability space, in fact.

I also think the case for outperformance of crypto in general is much weaker than for AI stocks

Separately, arguing for being able to beat the EMH with AI, but not crypto, seems a bit idiosyncratic. Why not any other sector? Why does it have to be the one we are particularly concerned about having massive negative externalities? Why aren't there climate change worriers making similar investments in new oil and gas drilling, or vegans making similar investments in meat companies?

I guess you might say "because if alignment is solved, then TAI will be worth a lot of money". But it's complete speculation to say that alignment is even possible to solve, given our current situation. Much bigger speculation than investing in crypto imo. And the markets clearly aren't expecting TAI to happen at all.

My main point is that it's not really about performance, it's about ethics and conflicts of interest. Investing in Index funds is much more neutral from this perspective, given that AI companies are part of society and we can't divorce ourselves from them completely because we can't divorce ourselves from society completely (the analogy of the vegan accepting mail from their non-vegan delivery person comes to mind).

Yeah, I also don't think we are that far away. OpenAI seems like it's just a few more scandals-similar-to-the-past-week's away from implosion. Or at least, Sam's position as CEO seems to be on shaky ground again, and this time he won't have unanimous support from the rank-and-file employees.

Well, the bottom line is extinction, for all of us. If the COIs block enough people from taking sufficient action, before it's too late, then that's what happens. The billions of EA money left in the bank as foom-doom hits will be useless. Might as well never have been accumulated in the first place.

I'll also note that there are plenty of other potential good investments out there. Crypto has gone up about as much as AI stocks in general over the last year, and some of them (e.g. SOL) have gone up much more than NVDA. There are promising start-ups in many non-AI areas. (Join this group to see more[1]).

To answer your bottom two questions:

1. I think avoiding stock-market-wide index funds is probably going too far (as they are neutral about AI - if AI starts doing badly, e.g. because of regulation, then the composition of the index fund will change to reflect this).

2. I wouldn't recommend this as a strategy, unless they are already on their way down and heavy regulation looks imminent.

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    But note that people are still pitching the likes of Anthropic in there! I don't approve of that.

Yes, but the COIs extend to altruistic impact too. Like - which EA EtG-er wouldn't want to be able to give away a billion dollars? Having AI stocks in your DAF still biases you toward supporting the big AI companies, and against trying to stop AGI/ASI development altogether (when that may well actually be the most high impact thing to do, even if it means you never get to give away a billion dollars).

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