Global moratorium on AGI, now (Twitter). Founder of CEEALAR (née the EA Hotel; ceealar.org)
[Separating out this paragraph into a new comment as I'm guessing it's what lead to the downvotes, and I'd quite like the point of the parent paragraph to stand alone. Not sure if anyone will see this now though.]I think it's imperative to get the leaders of AGI companies to realise that they are in a suicide race (and that AGI will likely kill them too). The default outcome of AGI is doom. For extinction risk at the 1% level, it seems reasonable (even though it's still 80M lives in expectation) to pull the trigger on AGI for a 99% chance of utopia. This is totally wrong-headed and is arguably contributing massively to current x-risk.
Also, in general I'm personally much more sceptical of such a moonshot paying off, given shorter timelines and the possibility that x-safety from ASI may well be impossible. I think OP was 2022's best idea for AI Safety. 2024's is PauseAI.
People from those orgs were aware, but none were keen enough about the idea to go as far as attempting a pilot run (e.g. the 2 week retreat idea). I think general downside risk aversion was probably a factor. This was in the pre-chatGPT days of a much narrower Overton Window though, so maybe it's time for the idea to be revived? On the other hand, maybe it's much less needed now there is government involvement, and national AI Safety Institutes attracting top talent.
At vastly superhuman capabilities (including intelligence and rationality), it should be easier to reduce existential-level mistakes to tiny levels. They would have vastly more capability for assessing and mitigating risks and for moral reflection
They are still human though, and humans are famous for making mistakes, even the most intelligent and rational of us. It's even regarded by many as part of what being human is - being fallible. That's not (too much of) a problem at current power differentials, but it is when we're talking of solar-system-rearranging powers for millions of subjective years without catastrophic error...
a temporary pause only delays the inevitable doom.
Yes. The pause should be indefinite, or at least until global consensus to proceed, with democratic acceptance of whatever risk remains.
Perhaps. But remember they will be smarter than us, so controlling them might not be so easy (especially if they gain access to enough computer power to speed themselves up massively. And they need not be hostile, just curious, to accidentally doom us.)
Because of the crazy high power differential, and propensity for accidents (can a human really not mess up on an existential scale if acting for millions of years subjectively at superhuman capability levels?). As I say in my comment above:
Even the nicest human could accidentally obliterate the rest of us if uplifted to superintelligence and left running for subjective millions of years (years of our time). "Whoops, I didn't expect that to happen from my little physics experiment"; "Uploading everyone into a hive mind is what my extrapolations suggested was for the best (and it was just so boring talking to you all at one word per week of my time)".
I agree that they would most likely be safer than ML-derived ASI. What I'm saying is that they still won't be safe enough to prevent an existential catastrophe. It might buy us a bit more time (if uploads happen before ASI), but that might only be measured in years. Moratorium >> mind uploads > ML-derived ASI.
I think there is an unstated assumption here that uploading is safe. And by safe, I mean existentially safe for humanity. If in addition to being uploaded, a human is uplifted to superintelligence, would they -- indeed any given human in such a state -- be aligned enough with humanity as a whole to not cause an existential disaster? Arguably humans right now are only relatively existentially safe because power imbalances between them are limited.Even the nicest human could accidentally obliterate the rest of us if uplifted to superintelligence and left running for subjective millions of years (years of our time). "Whoops, I didn't expect that to happen from my little physics experiment"; "Uploading everyone into a hive mind is what my extrapolations suggested was for the best (and it was just so boring talking to you all at one word per week of my time)".
Although safety for the individual being uploaded would be far from guaranteed either.
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Good point re it being a quantitative matter. I think the current priority is to kick the can down the road a few years with a treaty. Once that's done we can see about kicking the can further. Without a full solution to x-safety|AGI (dealing with alignment, misuse and coordination), maybe all we can do is keep kicking the can down the road.