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JoshuaBlake

PhD student @ MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge
1315 karmaJoined Pursuing a doctoral degree (e.g. PhD)Seeking workCambridge, UK
blog.joshuablake.co.uk

Bio

Participation
4

I am an (almost finished) PhD student in biostatistics and infectious disease modelling (population-level); my research focuses on Bayesian statistical methods to produce improved estimates of the number of new COVID-19 infections. During the pandemic, I was a member of SPI-M-O (the UK government committee providing expert scientific advice based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology).

I enjoy applying my knowledge broadly, including to models of future pandemics, big picture thinking on pandemic preparedness, and forecasting.

How others can help me

I'm currently nearing PhD competition with nothing lined up for after. I'm interested in opportunities in biosecurity and global health, especially answering questions about cost-effectiveness and prioritisation using modelling / stats / epidemiology skills. Please DM if of even vague interest.

How I can help others

Happy to chat about my experience providing scientific advice to government, the biosecurity field, epidemic modelling, doing a PhD, or pretty much anything else!

Comments
190

My top line summary is: in several areas, EV were operating below the standard the commission would expect, but have rectified the issues to the commission's satisfaction.

Is this about OCB?

The timings are description line up very closely to the public record, so I'm almost certain it must be.

Why are you ballparking $10b when all of the examples given are many multiples of that? $100b seems like a better estimate.

I also suspect we're targeting easy to eradicate diseases. Those without animal reservoirs that will cause resurgences and where there are effective interventions. Therefore, I'd suggest this is a lower bound.

Can I get alerts when new jobs get added matching my criteria?

Your objections seem reasonable but I do not understand their implications due to a lack of finance background. Would you mind helping me understand how your points affect the takeaway? Specifically, do you think that the estimates presented here are biased, much more uncertain than the post implies, or something else?

Thanks - I think this type of careful empirical analysis, and its distillation, is some of the next content on the forum. I found your section on varying parameters particularly helpful for quantifying how sensitive the approach is to these non-empirical inputs.

Based on the abstract, that study is based on a survey where they asked people about hypothetical future scenarios. Those surveys are generally considered pretty inaccurate (most people forecast their future decisions poorly) so I wouldn't put much weight on it.

So the question is basically whether the (upkeep costs + opportunity cost of money - benefit from events) is more or less than discount from selling quickly?

What do you mean by take a huge loss? I'm not sure paper losses are relevant here.

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