Your point applies to your second and third hypotheticals, since there is no reason to believe x is better than not-x. But surely the mugger is more likely than the anti-mugger since you are talking to the mugger whereas the anti-mugger is just a hypothetical.
Your point applies to your second and third hypotheticals, since there is no reason to believe x is better than not-x. But surely the mugger is more likely than the anti-mugger since you are talking to the mugger whereas the anti-mugger is just a hypothetical.