I mean more specifically, what is the additional risk of death per person across the next 10 years if you're lonely vs not lonely? Is it even 1/1000 an affect compared to deaths due to cars?

How tractable are the interventions? It might take hundreds of hours over many months to solve your loneliness. That's actually pretty hard / costly

I'm not saying it's not a problem, it definitely is, but I'm just trying to understand if it makes sense to be in this particular guide. Short term serious (yet tractable) risks

Hmm... but wouldn't the main impact of loneliness be suicide in the short term (the relevant part for this guide)? Which we're already addressing?

I'm sure loneliness impacts your long-term health, but I don't think it's going to raise your likelihood of death in the next 10 years if you're relatively young and healthy

If there other resources that are doing something similar, please link them in the comments so I can use the information to improve the guide (with a reference). Thanks!

I think this type of thinking and work is useful and important.

It's very surprising (although in some ways not surprising) that this analysis hasn't been done before elsewhere.

Have you searched for previous work on analyzing the AI safety space?

If OpenPhil (and others) are in the process of funding billions of dollars of AI safety work and field building, wouldn't they themselves do some sort of comprehensive analysis or fund / lean on someone else to do it?

What's the "whole manifund debacle"? People complaining about Curtis Yarvin or something?

Btw, two small suggestions for the chatbot:

1. smaller max width for container div, size 16px font, and 150% line height

before : https://i.imgur.com/AHjaJHD.png

after: https://i.imgur.com/jAO4ozG.png

2. Ask the LLM to use standard markdown in it's output. This will automatically create headings and bolded elements that make it much easier to skim/read

I like this idea and it looks great!

I had a similar concept in mind that I wanted to build but with more of a questionnaire/survey design rather than solely text articles or an open-ended chatbot. More of a hand-holding guided experience through the concerns/debate points.

How's it going so far? How many daily active users do you have?

Maybe they're training "GPT-4.5", maybe they've come up with a new name and they're training "Assistant-1"

But he's said elsewhere publicly that they're not training GPT-5

Maybe they're going to focus on plugins, fine-tuning, visual processing, etc.

Do you not trust Ilya when he says they have plenty more data?

https://youtu.be/Yf1o0TQzry8?t=656

I don't really have the time, skills, or contacts to make this happen, if you want to pick up the torch I would gladly pass it to you.

Tyler seems keen although worried about censors: https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/1614402492518785025

It seems from the podcast he wanted to only release the book in Chinese (maybe especially at this point due to the decline in willingness for the west to work with China) but I'm not sure, maybe the book would help westerns understand China's culture as much as Chinese to understand the west. A lot of great power war-concerned EAs would probably buy the book to get a better insight.

If I had to guess, I don't think he needs help finding a translator or transcribing the book to an audiobook or any other particular singular task, I think it's bigger than that.

If we could get someone with contacts and backing like OpenPhil to say to Tyler "We will pay all costs to publish the book and assign a project manager to do all of the annoying bits for you" it seems harder for Tyler to turn down, but I'm just guessing.

Happy to chat more, if you'd like