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Matt Brooks1
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I mean more specifically, what is the additional risk of death per person across the next 10 years if you're lonely vs not lonely? Is it even 1/1000 an affect compared to deaths due to cars?

How tractable are the interventions? It might take hundreds of hours over many months to solve your loneliness. That's actually pretty hard / costly

I'm not saying it's not a problem, it definitely is, but I'm just trying to understand if it makes sense to be in this particular guide. Short term serious (yet tractable) risks

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by Matt Brooks
28th Mar 20252 min read 5

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Existential riskForecastingGlobal health & developmentAI forecastingCollections and resourcesMental health (cause area)Productivity
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We may be on the direct path to AGI and then ASI - the singularity could happen within the next 5-20 years. If you survive to reach it, the potential upside is immense, daily life could become paradise.

With such high stakes, ensuring personal survival until the singularity should be a top priority for yourself and those you care about.

I've created V1 of the Singularity Survival Guide, an evidence-based resource focused on:

  1. Identifying the highest-probability preventable causes of death/injury in the near term
  2. Providing the highest-ROI risk mitigation strategies
  3. Outlining preparations for potential societal instability
  4. Presenting information in a shareable, memetic format

Top Risks to Mitigate

🚗 Car & Pedestrian Accidents

The #1 daily threat most people underestimate. Key mitigations include driving less when possible, choosing vehicles with top safety ratings, avoiding high-risk driving times, making phones inaccessible while driving, never driving impaired, and walking near cars carefully.

💊 Drug Overdose

A risk crossing all demographics with fentanyl contamination involved in 68% of overdoses. Effective mitigations include testing substances, never mixing depressants, keeping naloxone available, using a buddy system, and starting with small amounts to gauge potency.

🧠 Suicide

A preventable tragedy with clear warning signs. Mitigation strategies include restricting access to lethal means, treating mental health conditions proactively, maintaining strong social connections, limiting substance use during emotional crises, and creating safety plans.

💥️ Violence & Intentional Harm

Situational awareness can save your life. Key preventions include protection measures, exiting unsafe relationships at the first sign of physical abuse, practicing situational awareness, de-escalating conflicts, and avoiding high-risk locations.

🦠 Infections

From respiratory illnesses to potential pandemics. Mitigations include vaccinations, HEPA filters, maintaining supplies of masks and essentials, and seeking prompt treatment for worsening infections.

❤️ Heart Disease & Stroke

High-ROI prevention includes smoking cessation, blood pressure control, Mediterranean diet, regular exercise, appropriate medications, weight management, and knowing warning signs.

Broad preparation plans

To increase resilience during technological transition periods:

  • Be Informed: Develop situational awareness, follow reliable news, and understand personal protection options
  • Exit Plan: Create contingency plans for relocating from dense urban areas if necessary
  • Food/Water: Maintain at least a 2-week supply of essentials
  • Financial Resilience: Develop multiple income streams and diversify assets
  • Community: Build strong social networks for mutual assistance

Call for Contributions

We're seeking volunteer contributors who can help expand and improve the guide following these principles:

  • Bayesian prioritization of highest-probability risks and highest-impact mitigations
  • Practical over theoretical advice that can be implemented immediately by individuals or small groups
  • Concise and direct communication without unnecessary info
  • Concrete and specific recommendations over general principles
  • Memetic-friendly content that's easily remembered and shared

Our target audience values efficiency, rationality, optionality, personal agency, and common sense.

The most effective content will feature clear cause-effect reasoning, specific actions, visual representations, and accessible preparation strategies.

Visit the Singularity Survival Guide website for the complete resource, including Deep Research reports on each risk category.

If you'd like to contribute, join our Discord community.

What risk mitigation strategies have you found most effective in your own life?

What other important risk or preparation areas have I missed in V1?

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Matt Brooks2
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If there other resources that are doing something similar, please link them in the comments so I can use the information to improve the guide (with a reference). Thanks!

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Dave Cortright 🔸2
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The #1 risk for most people these days is loneliness. The US Surgeon General reported that loneliness is as deadly as smoking. Other sources worth checking out: The Village Effect by Susan Pinker, Friends by Robin Dunbar, and the Harvard Grant Study. I also just released this podcast episode on relationships.

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Matt Brooks1
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Hmm... but wouldn't the main impact of loneliness be suicide in the short term (the relevant part for this guide)? Which we're already addressing?

I'm sure loneliness impacts your long-term health, but I don't think it's going to raise your likelihood of death in the next 10 years if you're relatively young and healthy

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Dave Cortright 🔸1
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Please read the US Surgeon General report. It's more than just suicide. 

There's also this chart from The Village Effect, citing Holt-Lunstad 2010:

Also, (from an LLM):

A study published in The British Journal of Psychiatry examined the impact of loneliness and depression on mortality over 19 years. The researchers found that individuals experiencing loneliness at baseline had a higher likelihood of death during the follow-up period. The presence of depression further increased this risk, suggesting a potentially synergistic effect between loneliness and depression on mortality. ​Cambridge University Press & Assessment

Another study, also published in The British Journal of Psychiatry, investigated the association between mental disorders and accidental deaths. The study population was over 6.9 million adults in Sweden, followed for eight years. The researchers found that individuals with mental disorders, including depression, had an increased risk of death from accidents, such as falls, motor vehicle crashes, and other unintended injuries. ​Cambridge University Press & Assessment

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Matt Brooks1
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I mean more specifically, what is the additional risk of death per person across the next 10 years if you're lonely vs not lonely? Is it even 1/1000 an affect compared to deaths due to cars?

How tractable are the interventions? It might take hundreds of hours over many months to solve your loneliness. That's actually pretty hard / costly

I'm not saying it's not a problem, it definitely is, but I'm just trying to understand if it makes sense to be in this particular guide. Short term serious (yet tractable) risks

Reply
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