Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports - I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I'm highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. "🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!")
Good ideas re sponsorship with eg quants, or partnership with prediction markets. I think a few months of good traffic will unlock opportunities
I will launch a Patreon along with the AI dashboard later this month
Thank you. Yes, I include Metaculus, GJ Open, etc. Also any forecasts made by top groups like Samotsvety, the Swift Centre, publicly available Superforecasts, etc.
Thanks Misha! I've applied for the Long-Term Future Fund now🤞
Appreciate your suggestions:
Good idea on the social media previews! I couldn't figure how to do this in a dynamic way quickly, but I've added it to my to do list
Right now forecast links look like the screengrab below. Just to be clear, you're saying maybe instead it should look like eg: [Metaculus] Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?
Thank you!
Agree re: context behind numbers. Great idea on hiring forecasters for rationale reports - I would love to see what base rates a top forecaster used to arrive a prediction, for example.
Generally, I think there needs to be more forecasting content, and not just in text format.
(Also I'm highlighting when a news story precedes a change in the numbers, e.g. "🚨 odds of Chinese involvement 2x after position paper!")
Appreciate your support~
Thank you. Yes, I include Metaculus, GJ Open, etc. Also any forecasts made by top groups like Samotsvety, the Swift Centre, publicly available Superforecasts, etc.
Thanks Misha! I've applied for the Long-Term Future Fund now🤞
Appreciate your suggestions:
love the idea of a hackathon for forecasting
btw your website is so aesthetic, i love the text effects~